Antalyaspor 1-0 Yeni Malatyaspor – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Antalyaspor at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antalyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Antalyaspor and Yeni Malatyaspor meet at Antalya Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Antalyaspor (all games): 1W 2D 3L across 6 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 0.83 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Antalyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Antalyaspor have posted 1W 1D 1L at Antalya Stadyumu — 1.33 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.83 — Antalyaspor are significantly better at Antalya Stadyumu than their overall form suggests.
Yeni Malatyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 2.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.17 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Yeni Malatyaspor have played only a handful of Süper Lig games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.83 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.00 for Yeni Malatyaspor. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Antalyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Yeni Malatyaspor goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antalyaspor 50% versus Yeni Malatyaspor 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antalyaspor 33% | Yeni Malatyaspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antalyaspor 1.55 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antalyaspor attack 1.106 / defence 1.476 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.713 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.056. Yeni Malatyaspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Antalyaspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Antalyaspor games / 6 Yeni Malatyaspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antalyaspor 47% | Draw 25% | Yeni Malatyaspor 27%. Fair-value odds: Antalyaspor 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Yeni Malatyaspor 3.70. Antalyaspor hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Antalyaspor as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Antalyaspor if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.7 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antalyaspor 100% | Yeni Malatyaspor 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antalyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Antalya Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antalyaspor 47% | Draw 25% | Yeni Malatyaspor 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Antalyaspor 1.55 / Yeni Malatyaspor 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Antalyaspor attack 1.106 / def 1.476 | Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.713 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Antalyaspor (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Antalyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antalyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor kick off?
Antalyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Antalya Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Antalyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Antalyaspor 1 - 0 Yeni Malatyaspor.
Where is Antalyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor being played?
The match is being played at Antalya Stadyumu.
What competition is Antalyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor part of?
Antalyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Antalyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our statistical model gives Antalyaspor a 47% chance of winning, Yeni Malatyaspor a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Antalyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antalyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Antalyaspor and Yeni Malatyaspor will score (BTTS).
Will Antalyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Antalyaspor and Yeni Malatyaspor in?
Antalyaspor (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Yeni Malatyaspor (all comps): 2W-0D-4L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 2.17 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Antalyaspor's attack at 1.11x the league average against Yeni Malatyaspor's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Yeni Malatyaspor's attack (0.71x) against Antalyaspor's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antalyaspor Win
47%
2.11
25%
3.95
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Antalyaspor xG
Total xG
2.66
1.11
Yeni Malatyaspor xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
21%
4.72
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
6%
17.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.0 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antalyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Antalyaspor and Yeni Malatyaspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Antalyaspor and 1.11 for Yeni Malatyaspor, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Antalyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Antalyaspor come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 2D 3L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Antalyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Yeni Malatyaspor sit at 1.00 PPG from 6 outings (2W 0D 4L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Yeni Malatyaspor, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Antalyaspor against 1.00 for Yeni Malatyaspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Attack vs Defence
Antalyaspor are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Yeni Malatyaspor are on 1.17 scored and 2.17 conceded.
Last 6 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antalyaspor
Early Season
Yeni Malatyaspor
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antalyaspor and Yeni Malatyaspor in coming into this match?
Antalyaspor have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Yeni Malatyaspor have gone 2W 0D 4L in their last 6 (1.00 PPG).
Have Antalyaspor or Yeni Malatyaspor been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antalyaspor have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Yeni Malatyaspor in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Antalyaspor
0
Draws
0
Yeni Malatyaspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antalyaspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Antalyaspor have won 2, Yeni Malatyaspor have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Antalyaspor and Yeni Malatyaspor last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Yeni Malatyaspor 1-2 Antalyaspor.
Who has won more matches between Antalyaspor and Yeni Malatyaspor?
Antalyaspor have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Antalyaspor see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Yeni Malatyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antalyaspor 50%, Yeni Malatyaspor 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Antalyaspor) and 50% (Yeni Malatyaspor).
On the defensive side: Yeni Malatyaspor in 33%; Antalyaspor have failed to score in 50% of games; Yeni Malatyaspor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antalyaspor home games / Yeni Malatyaspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antalyaspor play Yeni Malatyaspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Antalyaspor's recent matches and 33% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antalyaspor vs Yeni Malatyaspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Antalyaspor's recent games and 50% of Yeni Malatyaspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antalyaspor and Yeni Malatyaspor tend to score early?
Antalyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Yeni Malatyaspor in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Antalyaspor edge out Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antalyaspor beat Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0 at Antalya Stadyumu, Regular Season - 7, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antalyaspor 1.55 xG and Yeni Malatyaspor 1.11 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Yeni Malatyaspor landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antalyaspor attack 1.11 / defence 1.48 against Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.71 / defence 1.22, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antalyaspor 47% | Draw 25% | Yeni Malatyaspor 27%, with Antalyaspor to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antalyaspor 33%, Yeni Malatyaspor 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antalyaspor's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Yeni Malatyaspor's trading profile (6 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Antalyaspor 0.83 PPG, Yeni Malatyaspor 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Antalyaspor win broke the near-deadlock. Antalyaspor conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Yeni Malatyaspor managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.