Ankaragücü 1-2 Ümraniyespor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ankaragücü at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ankaragücü vs Ümraniyespor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Süper Lig encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Ümraniyespor travel to Eryaman Stadyumu to take on Ankaragücü. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 27 December 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Süper Lig games this season, Ankaragücü have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ankaragücü, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ankaragücü at Eryaman Stadyumu this season: 2W 2D 3L from 7 home games — 1.14 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ümraniyespor — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Süper Lig fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ümraniyespor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ümraniyespor's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 3L across 6 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Ankaragücü carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ankaragücü register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant matches, Ümraniyespor in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Ankaragücü in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games).
Ümraniyespor in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ankaragücü 71% and Ümraniyespor 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ankaragücü 57% | Ümraniyespor 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ankaragücü 1.85 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ankaragücü attack 0.960 / defence 1.134 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.940 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.430. Ümraniyespor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.336 — this is suppressing Ankaragücü's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Ankaragücü games / 14 Ümraniyespor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ankaragücü 45% | Draw 24% | Ümraniyespor 31%. Fair-value odds: Ankaragücü 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Ümraniyespor 3.23. Ankaragücü hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.85 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ankaragücü are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ankaragücü offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.37 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Ankaragücü 71% | Ümraniyespor 67% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ankaragücü vs Ümraniyespor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Eryaman Stadyumu • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Dec 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ankaragücü 45% | Draw 24% | Ümraniyespor 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Ankaragücü 1.85 / Ümraniyespor 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Ankaragücü attack 0.960 / def 1.134 | Ümraniyespor attack 0.940 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Ankaragücü (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Ankaragücü xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Ümraniyespor xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ankaragücü vs Ümraniyespor kick off?
Ankaragücü vs Ümraniyespor kicked off at 14:00 on Tuesday 27 December 2022 at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Ankaragücü vs Ümraniyespor?
Ankaragücü 1 - 2 Ümraniyespor.
Where is Ankaragücü vs Ümraniyespor being played?
The match is being played at Eryaman Stadyumu.
What competition is Ankaragücü vs Ümraniyespor part of?
Ankaragücü vs Ümraniyespor is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Ankaragücü vs Ümraniyespor?
Our statistical model gives Ankaragücü a 45% chance of winning, Ümraniyespor a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ankaragücü the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ankaragücü vs Ümraniyespor?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Ankaragücü and Ümraniyespor will score (BTTS).
Will Ankaragücü vs Ümraniyespor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Ümraniyespor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ankaragücü and Ümraniyespor in?
Ankaragücü (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Ümraniyespor (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Ankaragücü's attack at 0.96x the league average against Ümraniyespor's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ümraniyespor's attack versus Ankaragücü's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ankaragücü Win
45%
2.23
24%
4.24
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Ankaragücü xG
Total xG
3.37
1.52
Ümraniyespor xG
2.23
45%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
2.99
Clean Sheet
22%
4.60
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
5%
20.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ankaragücü vs Ümraniyespor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Ankaragücü and Ümraniyespor expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Ankaragücü and 1.52 for Ümraniyespor, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Ankaragücü vs Ümraniyespor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ankaragücü come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 4D 6L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-W. The sample for Ankaragücü is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ümraniyespor sit at 0.50 PPG from 14 outings (1W 4D 9L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-L across their last five. The sample for Ümraniyespor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ankaragücü carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Ümraniyespor — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Ankaragücü's home form reads 2W 1D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Ümraniyespor have taken 0.50 points per game from 6 outings (0W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ankaragücü come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Ankaragücü are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Ümraniyespor are on 1.14 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ankaragücü have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Ümraniyespor in 64%.
Last 14 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ankaragücü
Blended
Ümraniyespor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ankaragücü and Ümraniyespor in coming into this match?
Ankaragücü have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Ümraniyespor have gone 1W 4D 9L in their last 14 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ankaragücü at home or Ümraniyespor away?
Ankaragücü's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ankaragücü at home: 1.17 PPG; Ümraniyespor away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Ankaragücü
0
Draws
1
Ümraniyespor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ankaragücü and Ümraniyespor?
From 2 meetings on record, Ankaragücü have won 1, Ümraniyespor have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ankaragücü and Ümraniyespor last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2023, when Ümraniyespor 1-2 Ankaragücü.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ankaragücü are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ümraniyespor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ankaragücü at 83%, Ümraniyespor at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Ankaragücü and 50% for Ümraniyespor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ümraniyespor in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ankaragücü home games / Ümraniyespor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ankaragücü play Ümraniyespor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Ankaragücü's games and 67% of Ümraniyespor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ankaragücü vs Ümraniyespor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Ankaragücü's matches and 50% of Ümraniyespor's.
Do Ankaragücü and Ümraniyespor tend to score early?
Ankaragücü have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Ümraniyespor in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ümraniyespor defy the odds to beat Ankaragücü 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ümraniyespor beat Ankaragücü 1-2 at Eryaman Stadyumu, Regular Season - 16, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ankaragücü 1.85 xG and Ümraniyespor 1.52 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Ankaragücü fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ankaragücü attack 0.96 / defence 1.13 against Ümraniyespor attack 0.94 / defence 1.34, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ankaragücü 45% | Draw 24% | Ümraniyespor 31%, with Ankaragücü to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Ümraniyespor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ankaragücü 57%, Ümraniyespor 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ankaragücü's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Ümraniyespor's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ankaragücü arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.50. Form was overturned, with Ümraniyespor winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ümraniyespor (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.