Amed vs Fenerbahçe – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Amed at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amed vs Fenerbahçe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fenerbahçe make the trip to Diyarbakir Stadium to face Amed in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 23 May 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Amed (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Süper Lig fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Amed, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Diyarbakir Stadium, Amed have gone 6W 0D 0L this season (6 games, 3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.17 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Diyarbakir Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Amed are significantly better at Diyarbakir Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Fenerbahçe have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fenerbahçe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fenerbahçe away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Amed. A 0.70 PPG lead over Fenerbahçe (2.30 vs 1.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Amed goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Fenerbahçe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amed 60% versus Fenerbahçe 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Amed 80% | Fenerbahçe 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amed 1.75 xG and Fenerbahçe 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amed attack 1.428 / defence 0.917 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.038 / defence 0.774. League average goals — home 1.587 / away 1.253. Amed carry an above-average attack strength of 1.428 — their λ of 1.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Fenerbahçe's defence strength of 0.774 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 10 Amed games / 44 Fenerbahçe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amed 51% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 26%. Fair-value odds: Amed 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Fenerbahçe 3.85. Amed hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amed are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amed if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data: Amed 50% | Fenerbahçe 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amed vs Fenerbahçe | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Diyarbakir Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amed 51% | Draw 24% | Fenerbahçe 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Amed 1.75 / Fenerbahçe 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Amed attack 1.428 / def 0.917 | Fenerbahçe attack 1.038 / def 0.774 | league avg home 1.587 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Amed (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Amed xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Fenerbahçe xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amed vs Fenerbahçe kick off?
Amed vs Fenerbahçe is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 23 May 2027 at Diyarbakir Stadium.
Where is Amed vs Fenerbahçe being played?
The match is being played at Diyarbakir Stadium.
What competition is Amed vs Fenerbahçe part of?
Amed vs Fenerbahçe is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Amed vs Fenerbahçe?
Our statistical model gives Amed a 51% chance of winning, Fenerbahçe a 26% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Amed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amed vs Fenerbahçe?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Amed and Fenerbahçe will score (BTTS).
Will Amed vs Fenerbahçe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amed and Fenerbahçe?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amed and Fenerbahçe in?
Amed (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Fenerbahçe (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Amed's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against Fenerbahçe's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. Flip it around — Fenerbahçe's attack (1.04x) against Amed's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 10/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amed Win
51%
1.98
24%
4.25
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Amed xG
Total xG
2.95
1.19
Fenerbahçe xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
30%
3.30
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
15%
6.52
4%
22.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amed vs Fenerbahçe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Amed and Fenerbahçe expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Amed and 1.19 for Fenerbahçe, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Amed vs Fenerbahçe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Amed's recent record stands at 7W 2D 1L from 10 games, a 2.30 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Amed is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fenerbahçe, meanwhile, have gone 5W 1D 4L across 10 games — 1.60 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Fenerbahçe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Amed by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fenerbahçe heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Amed have managed 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — 3.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 2.30 PPG overall — Amed are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fenerbahçe's away record stands at 2W 1D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amed come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Amed are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Fenerbahçe are on 2.40 scored and 1.00 conceded. Amed's scoring rate against Fenerbahçe's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Amed have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Fenerbahçe in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amed
Blended
Fenerbahçe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amed and Fenerbahçe in coming into this match?
Amed have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 games (2.30 PPG), while Fenerbahçe have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amed at home or Fenerbahçe away?
Amed's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amed at home: 3.00 PPG; Fenerbahçe away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Amed or Fenerbahçe been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amed have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Fenerbahçe in 50%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Amed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Fenerbahçe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amed 60%, Fenerbahçe 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Amed and 60% for Fenerbahçe. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Amed keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Fenerbahçe in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amed home games / Fenerbahçe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amed play Fenerbahçe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Amed's recent matches and 40% of Fenerbahçe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amed vs Fenerbahçe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Amed's matches and 60% of Fenerbahçe's.
Do Amed and Fenerbahçe tend to score early?
Amed have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Fenerbahçe in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.