Altay 1-1 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Altay at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Altay vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu plays host to Altay versus Sivasspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Saturday 30 October 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Altay have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Altay, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Altay's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 2L across 5 games at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Sivasspor (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sivasspor away from home this season: 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Altay, 1.10 for Sivasspor — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Altay — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sivasspor — key trading statistics (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Altay 70% and Sivasspor 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Altay 80% | Sivasspor 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Altay 1.10 xG and Sivasspor 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Altay attack 0.854 / defence 1.087 | Sivasspor attack 0.789 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.217 / away 1.140. Data: 10 Altay games / 10 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Altay 38% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 32%. Fair-value odds: Altay 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Sivasspor 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Altay as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Altay if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Altay 40% | Sivasspor 75%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Altay vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Altay 38% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Altay 1.10 / Sivasspor 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Altay attack 0.854 / def 1.087 | Sivasspor attack 0.789 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.217 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Altay (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Altay xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Sivasspor xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Altay vs Sivasspor kick off?
Altay vs Sivasspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Altay vs Sivasspor?
Altay 1 - 1 Sivasspor.
Where is Altay vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu.
What competition is Altay vs Sivasspor part of?
Altay vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Altay vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Altay a 38% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Altay the favourite.
Will both teams score in Altay vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Altay and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Altay vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Sivasspor?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Altay and Sivasspor in?
Altay (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Altay's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Sivasspor's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (0.79x) against Altay's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Altay Win
38%
2.62
30%
3.33
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Altay xG
Total xG
2.08
0.98
Sivasspor xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
11%
9.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Altay vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Altay and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Altay and 0.98 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Altay vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Altay's recent record stands at 5W 0D 5L from 10 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Altay is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sivasspor, meanwhile, have gone 2W 5D 3L across 10 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Altay against 1.10 for Sivasspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Altay have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sivasspor's away record stands at 1W 1D 2L across 4 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Altay come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Altay are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Altay have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Sivasspor in 70%.
Last 10 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Altay
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Altay and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Altay have gone 5W 0D 5L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Altay at home or Sivasspor away?
Altay's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Altay at home: 1.50 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Altay
1
Draws
1
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Altay and Sivasspor?
From 2 meetings on record, Altay have won 0, Sivasspor have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Altay and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2022, when Sivasspor 2-1 Altay.
Who has won more matches between Altay and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Altay see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Altay 50%, Sivasspor 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Altay) and 50% (Sivasspor).
On the defensive side: Altay have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Altay home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Altay play Sivasspor?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Altay's games and 75% of Sivasspor's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Altay vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Altay's recent games and 50% of Sivasspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Altay and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Altay have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Altay and Sivasspor share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Altay and Sivasspor finished level at 1-1 at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu, Regular Season - 11, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Altay 1.10 xG and Sivasspor 0.98 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Altay attack 0.85 / defence 1.09 against Sivasspor attack 0.79 / defence 1.06, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Altay 38% | Draw 30% | Sivasspor 32%, with Altay to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Altay 80%, Sivasspor 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Altay's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Altay 1.50 PPG, Sivasspor 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.