Alanyaspor 1-2 Sivasspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alanyaspor at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu plays host to Alanyaspor versus Sivasspor in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Alanyaspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alanyaspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alanyaspor's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sivasspor (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Süper Lig outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sivasspor, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Süper Lig this season, Sivasspor have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Sivasspor hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2023, ended 0–3 with Sivasspor winning.
It is worth noting that Sivasspor have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Alanyaspor half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sivasspor half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alanyaspor 51% versus Sivasspor 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alanyaspor 64% | Sivasspor 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alanyaspor 1.70 xG and Sivasspor 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alanyaspor attack 1.044 / defence 1.022 | Sivasspor attack 1.148 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.183. Data: 45 Alanyaspor games / 45 Sivasspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alanyaspor 43% | Draw 27% | Sivasspor 29%. Fair-value odds: Alanyaspor 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Sivasspor 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Alanyaspor at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alanyaspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Alanyaspor 40% | Sivasspor 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alanyaspor 43% | Draw 27% | Sivasspor 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Alanyaspor 1.70 / Sivasspor 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Alanyaspor attack 1.044 / def 1.022 | Sivasspor attack 1.148 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Alanyaspor (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Alanyaspor xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Sivasspor xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor kick off?
Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Alanyaspor 1 - 2 Sivasspor.
Where is Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor being played?
The match is being played at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu.
What competition is Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor part of?
Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our statistical model gives Alanyaspor a 43% chance of winning, Sivasspor a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Alanyaspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Alanyaspor and Sivasspor will score (BTTS).
Will Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Sivasspor?
Record (4 meetings): Alanyaspor 0W | Draws 1 | Sivasspor 3W.
What form are Alanyaspor and Sivasspor in?
Alanyaspor (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Sivasspor (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Alanyaspor's attack rating (1.04) and Sivasspor's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sivasspor's attack (1.15x) against Alanyaspor's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Alanyaspor Win
43%
2.32
27%
3.64
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Alanyaspor xG
Total xG
3.09
1.39
Sivasspor xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
11%
9.31
5%
18.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.7 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Alanyaspor and Sivasspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Alanyaspor and 1.39 for Sivasspor, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alanyaspor come into this having played 45 games, going 13W 12D 20L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-L. The sample for Alanyaspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sivasspor sit at 1.13 PPG from 45 outings (13W 12D 20L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Sivasspor is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Alanyaspor against 1.13 for Sivasspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Alanyaspor's home form reads 10W 5D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Alanyaspor are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sivasspor have taken 1.18 points per game from 22 outings (8W 2D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alanyaspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alanyaspor are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Sivasspor are on 1.24 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sivasspor in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alanyaspor
Blended
Sivasspor
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alanyaspor and Sivasspor in coming into this match?
Alanyaspor have gone 13W 12D 20L in their last 45 games (1.13 PPG), while Sivasspor have gone 13W 12D 20L in their last 45 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alanyaspor at home or Sivasspor away?
Alanyaspor's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alanyaspor at home: 1.59 PPG; Sivasspor away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sivasspor won 0-3 on 31 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alanyaspor have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sivasspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Alanyaspor
2
Draws
4
Sivasspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alanyaspor and Sivasspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Alanyaspor have won 2, Sivasspor have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alanyaspor and Sivasspor last play each other?
They last met on 31 May 2025, when Alanyaspor 2-0 Sivasspor.
Who has won more matches between Alanyaspor and Sivasspor?
Sivasspor have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alanyaspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Sivasspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alanyaspor 46%, Sivasspor 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Alanyaspor and 68% for Sivasspor. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Alanyaspor keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Alanyaspor have failed to score in 27% of games; Sivasspor in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alanyaspor home games / Sivasspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alanyaspor play Sivasspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Alanyaspor's recent matches and 54% of Sivasspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alanyaspor vs Sivasspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Alanyaspor's matches and 68% of Sivasspor's.
Do Alanyaspor and Sivasspor tend to score early?
Alanyaspor have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Sivasspor in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sivasspor defy the odds to beat Alanyaspor 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sivasspor beat Alanyaspor 1-2 at Kırbıyık Holding Stadyumu, Regular Season - 10, in the Süper Lig. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alanyaspor 1.70 xG and Sivasspor 1.39 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alanyaspor attack 1.04 / defence 1.02 against Sivasspor attack 1.15 / defence 1.10, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alanyaspor 43% | Draw 27% | Sivasspor 29%, with Alanyaspor to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Sivasspor win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alanyaspor 64%, Sivasspor 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alanyaspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Sivasspor's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alanyaspor 1.13 PPG, Sivasspor 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sivasspor win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.