Adana Demirspor 0-5 Hatayspor – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hatayspor at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor meet at Yeni Adana Stadyumu in Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Adana Demirspor have collected 0.10 PPG across 10 Süper Lig outings this season: 0W 1D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana Demirspor have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Hatayspor's overall Süper Lig record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Hatayspor's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Süper Lig this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Hatayspor arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (0.70 vs 0.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Adana Demirspor, 1 for Hatayspor and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Dec 2024, ended 3–1 with Adana Demirspor winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Adana Demirspor half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hatayspor half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Adana Demirspor 59% versus Hatayspor 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Adana Demirspor 61% | Hatayspor 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Adana Demirspor 1.41 xG and Hatayspor 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Adana Demirspor attack 0.644 / defence 1.341 | Hatayspor attack 0.896 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.222. Adana Demirspor's attack strength of 0.644 is below the league average — the 1.41 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hatayspor bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing Adana Demirspor's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 71 Adana Demirspor games / 71 Hatayspor games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 36% | Draw 25% | Hatayspor 39%. Fair-value odds: Adana Demirspor 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Hatayspor 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Adana Demirspor dominate the H2H record, yet Hatayspor are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Hatayspor as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hatayspor if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Adana Demirspor 40% | Hatayspor 60%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor | Competition: Süper Lig, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Adana Demirspor 36% | Draw 25% | Hatayspor 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Adana Demirspor 1.41 / Hatayspor 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Adana Demirspor attack 0.644 / def 1.341 | Hatayspor attack 0.896 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.595 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Hatayspor (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Adana Demirspor xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Hatayspor xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor kick off?
Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What was the final score in Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor?
Adana Demirspor 0 - 5 Hatayspor.
Where is Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor being played?
The match is being played at Yeni Adana Stadyumu.
What competition is Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor part of?
Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Süper Lig (Turkey).
Who is favourite to win Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor?
Our statistical model gives Adana Demirspor a 36% chance of winning, Hatayspor a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hatayspor the favourite.
Will both teams score in Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor will score (BTTS).
Will Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor?
Record (7 meetings): Adana Demirspor 3W | Draws 3 | Hatayspor 1W.
What form are Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor in?
Adana Demirspor (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Hatayspor (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Adana Demirspor's attack at 0.64x the league average against Hatayspor's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hatayspor's attack (0.90x) against Adana Demirspor's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hatayspor Win
36%
2.75
25%
4.02
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Adana Demirspor xG
Total xG
2.88
1.47
Hatayspor xG
2.75
36%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
8%
11.93
9%
10.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.6 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Adana Demirspor and 1.47 for Hatayspor, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Adana Demirspor come into this having played 71 games, going 12W 18D 41L for 0.76 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Hatayspor sit at 0.86 PPG from 71 outings (13W 22D 36L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.76 PPG for Adana Demirspor against 0.86 for Hatayspor. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Adana Demirspor's home form reads 10W 6D 19L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, Hatayspor have taken 0.54 points per game from 35 outings (3W 10D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Adana Demirspor come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Adana Demirspor are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Hatayspor are on 1.14 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hatayspor in 61%.
Last 71 Results — Süper Lig
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Adana Demirspor
Current Season
Hatayspor
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor in coming into this match?
Adana Demirspor have gone 12W 18D 41L in their last 71 games (0.76 PPG), while Hatayspor have gone 13W 22D 36L in their last 71 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Adana Demirspor at home or Hatayspor away?
Adana Demirspor's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Adana Demirspor at home: 1.03 PPG; Hatayspor away: 0.54 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Süper Lig. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hatayspor won 0-5 on 17 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Adana Demirspor have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Hatayspor — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Adana Demirspor
3
Draws
2
Hatayspor
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor?
From 8 meetings on record, Adana Demirspor have won 3, Hatayspor have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2025, when Adana Demirspor 0-5 Hatayspor.
Who has won more matches between Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor?
Adana Demirspor have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Adana Demirspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Hatayspor are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Adana Demirspor 51%, Hatayspor 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Adana Demirspor) and 49% (Hatayspor).
On the defensive side: Adana Demirspor have failed to score in 34% of games; Hatayspor in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Adana Demirspor home games / Hatayspor away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Adana Demirspor play Hatayspor?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Adana Demirspor's recent matches and 51% of Hatayspor's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Adana Demirspor vs Hatayspor usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Adana Demirspor's recent games and 49% of Hatayspor's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Adana Demirspor and Hatayspor tend to score early?
Adana Demirspor have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hatayspor in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hatayspor run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Adana Demirspor.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hatayspor beat Adana Demirspor 0-5 at Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Regular Season - 36, in the Süper Lig. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Adana Demirspor 1.41 xG and Hatayspor 1.47 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Adana Demirspor fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Hatayspor outscored their 1.47 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Adana Demirspor attack 0.64 / defence 1.34 against Hatayspor attack 0.90 / defence 1.38, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Adana Demirspor 36% | Draw 25% | Hatayspor 39%, with Hatayspor to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Adana Demirspor 61%, Hatayspor 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Adana Demirspor's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Hatayspor's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Adana Demirspor 0.76 PPG, Hatayspor 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hatayspor win broke the near-deadlock. Adana Demirspor (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hatayspor (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.