Uthai Thani 3-1 Trat FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Uthai Thani face Trat FC.

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Full Analysis

Uthai Thani Province Stadium plays host to Uthai Thani versus Trat FC in Thai League 1 (matchday 27). Kick-off: Friday 3 May 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Uthai Thani have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Uthai Thani have gone 2W 6D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Trat FC's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Trat FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 1D 8L (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Uthai Thani's last 10 home games and Trat FC's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Uthai Thani's games and 70% of Trat FC's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Uthai Thani edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Dec 2023, ended Uthai Thani 3–2 Trat FC — a Uthai Thani win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Uthai Thani goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 26 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

Trat FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 26 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Uthai Thani 58% and Trat FC 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Uthai Thani 54% | Trat FC 69%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Uthai Thani 1.63 xG and Trat FC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Uthai Thani attack 0.819 / defence 1.122 | Trat FC attack 0.739 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.218. Trat FC's attack rating of 0.739 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Data: built from Uthai Thani's last 26 games and Trat FC's last 26.

Result probabilities: Uthai Thani 51% | Draw 26% | Trat FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Uthai Thani 1.95 | Draw 3.91 | Trat FC 4.33. Uthai Thani hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Uthai Thani as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Uthai Thani's last 10 home games and Trat FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Uthai Thani 70% (last 10 home games) | Trat FC 70% (last 10 away games).

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