Trat FC 4-3 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trat FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trat FC vs Nakhon Pathom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Trat Provincial Central Stadium plays host to Trat FC versus Nakhon Pathom in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Trat FC have collected 1.00 PPG across 6 Thai League 1 outings this season: 1W 3D 2L. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.83 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Trat FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trat FC have posted 1W 2D 0L at Trat Provincial Central Stadium — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Trat FC are significantly better at Trat Provincial Central Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Nakhon Pathom (all games): 2W 2D 2L across 6 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.33 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.67. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Nakhon Pathom have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Nakhon Pathom have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Trat FC, 1.33 for Nakhon Pathom — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Trat FC have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Nakhon Pathom in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Trat FC half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Nakhon Pathom half-time and goal-timing data (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trat FC 50% and Nakhon Pathom 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Trat FC 67% | Nakhon Pathom 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trat FC 1.57 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trat FC attack 0.842 / defence 0.974 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.912 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.202. Data: 6 Trat FC games / 6 Nakhon Pathom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trat FC 48% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Pathom 24%. Fair-value odds: Trat FC 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Nakhon Pathom 4.17. Trat FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trat FC are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trat FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Trat FC 67% | Nakhon Pathom 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trat FC vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Trat Provincial Central Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trat FC 48% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Pathom 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Trat FC 1.57 / Nakhon Pathom 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Trat FC attack 0.842 / def 0.974 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.912 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Trat FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Trat FC xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Nakhon Pathom xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trat FC vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Trat FC vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What was the final score in Trat FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Trat FC 4 - 3 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Trat FC vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at Trat Provincial Central Stadium.
What competition is Trat FC vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Trat FC vs Nakhon Pathom is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Trat FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Trat FC a 48% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Trat FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trat FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Trat FC and Nakhon Pathom will score (BTTS).
Will Trat FC vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Nakhon Pathom?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Trat FC and Nakhon Pathom in?
Trat FC (all comps): 1W-3D-2L in 6 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.83 / GA 1.67 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Trat FC's attack rating (0.84) and Nakhon Pathom's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nakhon Pathom's attack (0.91x) against Trat FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trat FC Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.59
24%
4.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Trat FC xG
Total xG
2.64
1.07
Nakhon Pathom xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.08
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
5%
19.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trat FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Trat FC and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Trat FC and 1.07 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Trat FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Trat FC come into this having played 6 games, going 1W 3D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Trat FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Nakhon Pathom sit at 1.33 PPG from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Trat FC against 1.33 for Nakhon Pathom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Trat FC's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Trat FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Nakhon Pathom have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
Attack vs Defence
Trat FC are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 1.50 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trat FC
Early Season
Nakhon Pathom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trat FC and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Trat FC have gone 1W 3D 2L in their last 6 games (1.00 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trat FC at home or Nakhon Pathom away?
Trat FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trat FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Nakhon Pathom away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Trat FC or Nakhon Pathom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Trat FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Nakhon Pathom in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Trat FC
0
Draws
1
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trat FC and Nakhon Pathom?
From 2 meetings on record, Trat FC have won 1, Nakhon Pathom have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Trat FC and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2024, when Nakhon Pathom 2-1 Trat FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Trat FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Nakhon Pathom see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Trat FC, 67% for Nakhon Pathom — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Trat FC and 67% for Nakhon Pathom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Trat FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Nakhon Pathom in 33%; Trat FC have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trat FC home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trat FC play Nakhon Pathom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Trat FC's games and 67% of Nakhon Pathom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trat FC vs Nakhon Pathom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Trat FC's matches and 67% of Nakhon Pathom's.
Do Trat FC and Nakhon Pathom tend to score early?
Trat FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nakhon Pathom in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trat FC edge out Nakhon Pathom 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trat FC beat Nakhon Pathom 4-3 at Trat Provincial Central Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trat FC 1.57 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.07 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Trat FC beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nakhon Pathom outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trat FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.97 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.91 / defence 1.09, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trat FC 48% | Draw 28% | Nakhon Pathom 24%, with Trat FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trat FC 67%, Nakhon Pathom 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trat FC's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trat FC 1.00 PPG, Nakhon Pathom 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Trat FC win broke the near-deadlock. Trat FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.