Suphanburi 1-2 Pattaya United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Suphanburi at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suphanburi vs Pattaya United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Pattaya United travel to Suphanburi Municipality Stadium to take on Suphanburi. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 April 2022, 12:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Suphanburi — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Suphanburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Suphanburi's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Pattaya United have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Pattaya United, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Pattaya United have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Suphanburi are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Suphanburi, 0 for Pattaya United and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Suphanburi winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Suphanburi in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Pattaya United in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suphanburi 63% versus Pattaya United 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suphanburi 56% | Pattaya United 44%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Suphanburi 1.41 xG and Pattaya United 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suphanburi attack 0.986 / defence 1.300 | Pattaya United attack 0.729 / defence 1.388. League average goals — home 1.029 / away 1.204. Pattaya United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.388 — this is suppressing Suphanburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Suphanburi games / 27 Pattaya United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Suphanburi 41% | Draw 31% | Pattaya United 28%. Fair-value odds: Suphanburi 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Pattaya United 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Suphanburi as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suphanburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Suphanburi 60% | Pattaya United 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights