Suphanburi 2-1 Buriram United – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Buriram United at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Suphanburi vs Buriram United encounter.

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Match Analysis

Suphanburi host Buriram United at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 4 May 2022 at 12:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Suphanburi have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Suphanburi's home record at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Suphanburi are significantly better at Suphanburi Municipality Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Buriram United — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Buriram United have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Buriram United — 1.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Suphanburi have won 0, Buriram United 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Suphanburi in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Buriram United in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suphanburi 66% versus Buriram United 31%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suphanburi 59% | Buriram United 41%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Suphanburi 0.80 xG and Buriram United 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suphanburi attack 0.915 / defence 1.397 | Buriram United attack 1.075 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.182. Buriram United's defence strength of 0.791 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 29 Suphanburi games / 29 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Suphanburi 15% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 59%. Fair-value odds: Suphanburi 6.67 | Draw 3.85 | Buriram United 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Buriram United (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Buriram United at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Suphanburi 60% | Buriram United 20% BTTS from recent games.

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