Sukhothai FC 1-1 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 49%, yet in-form Uthai Thani provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Uthai Thani travel to Thalay Luang Stadium to take on Sukhothai FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 February 2026, 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sukhothai FC — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Thalay Luang Stadium, Sukhothai FC have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thalay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Uthai Thani have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Uthai Thani — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sukhothai FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Uthai Thani in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Uthai Thani, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Sukhothai FC.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Uthai Thani have won 3 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Uthai Thani in-play tendencies (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 58% versus Uthai Thani 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sukhothai FC 52% | Uthai Thani 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.40 xG and Uthai Thani 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.772 / defence 0.877 | Uthai Thani attack 0.964 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.586 / away 1.055. Sukhothai FC's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Sukhothai FC games / 48 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 49% | Draw 27% | Uthai Thani 24%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Uthai Thani 4.17. Sukhothai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sukhothai FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Uthai Thani (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sukhothai FC 60% | Uthai Thani 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 49% | Draw 27% | Uthai Thani 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.40 / Uthai Thani 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.772 / def 0.877 | Uthai Thani attack 0.964 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.586 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Uthai Thani xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani?
Sukhothai FC 1 - 1 Uthai Thani.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 49% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani?
Record (5 meetings): Sukhothai FC 0W | Draws 2 | Uthai Thani 3W.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Uthai Thani (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sukhothai FC's attack rating (0.77) and Uthai Thani's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Uthai Thani's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.67
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.29
0.89
Uthai Thani xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
20%
4.99
6%
17.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 0.89 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sukhothai FC's recent record stands at 13W 16D 19L from 48 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Uthai Thani, meanwhile, have gone 14W 15D 19L across 48 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 1.15 PPG, Uthai Thani on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sukhothai FC have managed 11W 6D 6L from 23 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — Sukhothai FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Uthai Thani's away record stands at 5W 5D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.38 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 13W 16D 19L in their last 48 games (1.15 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 14W 15D 19L in their last 48 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Uthai Thani away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.70 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when Uthai Thani won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sukhothai FC's record when hosting Uthai Thani specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Sukhothai FC
3
Draws
3
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 0, Uthai Thani have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Sukhothai FC 1-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani?
Uthai Thani have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sukhothai FC see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 65%, Uthai Thani 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Sukhothai FC) and 52% (Uthai Thani). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Uthai Thani in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sukhothai FC's games and 56% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 52% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 48% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sukhothai FC and Uthai Thani finished level at 1-1 at Thalay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.40 xG and Uthai Thani 0.89 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.77 / defence 0.88 against Uthai Thani attack 0.96 / defence 1.15, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 49% | Draw 27% | Uthai Thani 24%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 52%, Uthai Thani 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sukhothai FC 1.15 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.