Sukhothai FC 0-3 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Thung Talay Luang Stadium plays host to Sukhothai FC versus Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 14 August 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Prachuap's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Prachuap haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Prachuap have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 1.33 xG and Prachuap 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Prachuap attack 0.999 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.026. Data: 0 Sukhothai FC games / 30 Prachuap games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 40% | Draw 27% | Prachuap 33%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Prachuap 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sukhothai FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 40% | Draw 27% | Prachuap 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Sukhothai FC 1.33 / Prachuap 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Prachuap attack 0.999 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Prachuap xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap?
Sukhothai FC 0 - 3 Prachuap.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 40% chance of winning, Prachuap a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Prachuap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Prachuap in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Prachuap (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sukhothai FC's attack rating (0.85) and Prachuap's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (1.00x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.8%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
40%
2.49
27%
3.72
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
2.51
1.18
Prachuap xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
9%
11.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.18 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Pre-Season
Prachuap
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Prachuap won 0-3 on 14 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sukhothai FC
3
Draws
3
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 2, Prachuap have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Sukhothai FC 0-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Prachuap run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sukhothai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Sukhothai FC 0-3 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 1.33 xG and Prachuap 1.18 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sukhothai FC fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Prachuap outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Prachuap attack 1.00 / defence 1.09, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 40% | Draw 27% | Prachuap 33%, with Sukhothai FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Prachuap win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.