Sukhothai FC 1-3 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sukhothai FC and Port FC meet at Thung Talay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 October 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sukhothai FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 3L from 9 games (1.11 PPG). Last five: D W D W D. They are averaging 0.56 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 9 games (44%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 1L across 4 games at Thung Talay Luang Stadium this term (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
Port FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.11 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Sukhothai FC — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Port FC — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 33% versus Port FC 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sukhothai FC 22% | Port FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 0.87 xG and Port FC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 0.647 / defence 0.925 | Port FC attack 0.932 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.282 / away 1.140. Sukhothai FC's attack strength of 0.647 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Sukhothai FC games / 39 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 31% | Draw 32% | Port FC 37%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Port FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 0% | Port FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Thung Talay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 31% | Draw 32% | Port FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Sukhothai FC 0.87 / Port FC 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 0.647 / def 0.925 | Port FC attack 0.932 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.282 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Port FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Port FC xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Port FC kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Port FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What was the final score in Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Sukhothai FC 1 - 3 Port FC.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Thung Talay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Port FC part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 31% chance of winning, Port FC a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Port FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Port FC in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-4D-3L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 0.56 / GA 1.44 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. Port FC (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sukhothai FC's attack at 0.65x the league average against Port FC's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Port FC's attack (0.93x) against Sukhothai FC's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 9/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
31%
3.23
32%
3.11
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
1.86
0.98
Port FC xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 15.3 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 0.98 for Port FC, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sukhothai FC's recent record stands at 2W 4D 3L from 9 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 1L across 9 games — 1.56 PPG, with D-D-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sukhothai FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sukhothai FC have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Port FC's away record stands at 0W 3D 1L across 4 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Port FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sukhothai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sukhothai FC are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.78 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC in 67%.
Defensively: Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Port FC in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Port FC have gone 3W 5D 1L in their last 9 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sukhothai FC at home or Port FC away?
Sukhothai FC's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sukhothai FC at home: 1.25 PPG; Port FC away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Sukhothai FC or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sukhothai FC have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Port FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-0 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sukhothai FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Port FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sukhothai FC
0
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Port FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Sukhothai FC have won 3, Port FC have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sukhothai FC and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when Port FC 5-0 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Sukhothai FC and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sukhothai FC tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Port FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 0% (Sukhothai FC) and 50% (Port FC) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Sukhothai FC) and 50% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Port FC in 50%; Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 75% of games; Port FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Port FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 50% of Port FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Sukhothai FC's recent games and 50% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sukhothai FC and Port FC tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Port FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sukhothai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Sukhothai FC 1-3 at Thung Talay Luang Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sukhothai FC 0.87 xG and Port FC 0.98 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Port FC outscored their 0.98 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sukhothai FC attack 0.65 / defence 0.93 against Port FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sukhothai FC 31% | Draw 32% | Port FC 37%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sukhothai FC 22%, Port FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Port FC's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.