Sukhothai FC vs Pattani – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sukhothai FC at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sukhothai FC vs Pattani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sukhothai FC host Pattani at Thalay Luang Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 April 2027 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sukhothai FC stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Thalay Luang Stadium this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sukhothai FC are significantly better at Thalay Luang Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Pattani have recorded 1W 1D 3L from 5 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sukhothai FC 1.00 PPG, Pattani 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Sukhothai FC in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Pattani in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sukhothai FC 60% versus Pattani 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sukhothai FC 80% | Pattani 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sukhothai FC 2.25 xG and Pattani 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sukhothai FC attack 1.317 / defence 1.023 | Pattani attack 1.042 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.292. Sukhothai FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — their λ of 2.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Sukhothai FC games / 5 Pattani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 56% | Draw 21% | Pattani 22%. Fair-value odds: Sukhothai FC 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Pattani 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Sukhothai FC (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sukhothai FC at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.62 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sukhothai FC 70% | Pattani 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sukhothai FC vs Pattani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Thalay Luang Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Apr 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sukhothai FC 56% | Draw 21% | Pattani 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 67% | xG Sukhothai FC 2.25 / Pattani 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Sukhothai FC attack 1.317 / def 1.023 | Pattani attack 1.042 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Sukhothai FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Sukhothai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Pattani xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sukhothai FC vs Pattani kick off?
Sukhothai FC vs Pattani is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Sunday 4 April 2027 at Thalay Luang Stadium.
Where is Sukhothai FC vs Pattani being played?
The match is being played at Thalay Luang Stadium.
What competition is Sukhothai FC vs Pattani part of?
Sukhothai FC vs Pattani is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sukhothai FC vs Pattani?
Our statistical model gives Sukhothai FC a 56% chance of winning, Pattani a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Sukhothai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sukhothai FC vs Pattani?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Sukhothai FC and Pattani will score (BTTS).
Will Sukhothai FC vs Pattani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sukhothai FC and Pattani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sukhothai FC and Pattani in?
Sukhothai FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Pattani (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sukhothai FC's attack rating (1.32) and Pattani's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pattani's attack versus Sukhothai FC's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 3-1 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sukhothai FC Win
56%
1.77
21%
4.71
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
3 – 1
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Sukhothai FC xG
Total xG
3.62
1.38
Pattani xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.08
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
11%
9.46
Win to Nil
14%
7.01
2%
42.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sukhothai FC vs Pattani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Sukhothai FC and Pattani expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Sukhothai FC and 1.38 for Pattani, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Sukhothai FC vs Pattani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sukhothai FC come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 0D 3L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Pattani sit at 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sukhothai FC on 1.20 PPG, Pattani on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Sukhothai FC are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game recently; Pattani are on 0.80 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sukhothai FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
Pattani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sukhothai FC and Pattani in coming into this match?
Sukhothai FC have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 games (1.20 PPG), while Pattani have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sukhothai FC 60%, Pattani 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Sukhothai FC and 60% for Pattani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sukhothai FC have failed to score in 40% of games; Pattani in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sukhothai FC home games / Pattani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sukhothai FC play Pattani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Sukhothai FC's recent matches and 40% of Pattani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sukhothai FC vs Pattani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Sukhothai FC's matches and 60% of Pattani's.
Do Sukhothai FC and Pattani tend to score early?
Sukhothai FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pattani in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.