Sisaket United vs Prachuap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Prachuap at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sisaket United vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Prachuap make the trip to Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium to face Sisaket United in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Friday 19 March 2027 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sisaket United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sisaket United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sisaket United's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 games at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Prachuap (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Prachuap are 0.70 PPG clear of Sisaket United in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (2.10 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Sisaket United — key trading statistics (5 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
Prachuap — key trading statistics (5 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sisaket United 60% versus Prachuap 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sisaket United 40% | Prachuap 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sisaket United 1.05 xG and Prachuap 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sisaket United attack 0.814 / defence 1.049 | Prachuap attack 1.093 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.292. Data: 5 Sisaket United games / 35 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sisaket United 26% | Draw 28% | Prachuap 46%. Fair-value odds: Sisaket United 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Prachuap 2.17. Prachuap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Prachuap are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Prachuap if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sisaket United 67% | Prachuap 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sisaket United vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 19 Mar 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sisaket United 26% | Draw 28% | Prachuap 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Sisaket United 1.05 / Prachuap 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Sisaket United attack 0.814 / def 1.049 | Prachuap attack 1.093 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Sisaket United xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Prachuap xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sisaket United vs Prachuap kick off?
Sisaket United vs Prachuap is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 19 March 2027 at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium.
Where is Sisaket United vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Sri Nakhon Lamduan Stadium.
What competition is Sisaket United vs Prachuap part of?
Sisaket United vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Sisaket United vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Sisaket United a 26% chance of winning, Prachuap a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sisaket United vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sisaket United and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Sisaket United vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sisaket United and Prachuap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sisaket United and Prachuap in?
Sisaket United (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Prachuap (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sisaket United's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (1.09x) against Sisaket United's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
26%
3.87
28%
3.58
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Sisaket United xG
Total xG
2.53
1.48
Prachuap xG
3.87
26%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
23%
4.40
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
6%
17.02
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.8 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.4 | 9.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sisaket United vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sisaket United and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Sisaket United and 1.48 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Sisaket United vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sisaket United come into this having played 5 games, going 2W 1D 2L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Sisaket United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Prachuap sit at 2.40 PPG from 5 outings (4W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Sisaket United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sisaket United's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Prachuap have taken 2.00 points per game from 3 outings (2W 0D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sisaket United are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.60 scored and 0.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sisaket United have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Prachuap in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sisaket United
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sisaket United and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Sisaket United have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 games (1.40 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 4W 0D 1L in their last 5 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sisaket United at home or Prachuap away?
Prachuap's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sisaket United at home: 1.33 PPG; Prachuap away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Sisaket United or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sisaket United have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Prachuap in 40%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sisaket United see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sisaket United 67%, Prachuap 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sisaket United) and 67% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Prachuap in 33%; Sisaket United have failed to score in 33% of games; Prachuap in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sisaket United home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sisaket United play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Sisaket United's recent matches and 33% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sisaket United vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sisaket United's recent games and 67% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sisaket United and Prachuap tend to score early?
Sisaket United have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.