Rayong FC 2-0 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayong FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rayong FC and Chiangrai United meet at WHA Rayong Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 November 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Rayong FC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rayong FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rayong FC's home record at WHA Rayong Stadium: 1W 2D 2L from 5 Thai League 1 appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Chiangrai United (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Rayong FC half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Chiangrai United half-time and goal-timing data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rayong FC 64% versus Chiangrai United 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rayong FC 64% | Chiangrai United 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayong FC 1.55 xG and Chiangrai United 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayong FC attack 0.819 / defence 1.305 | Chiangrai United attack 0.700 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.689 / away 1.124. Data: 11 Rayong FC games / 39 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rayong FC 47% | Draw 31% | Chiangrai United 22%. Fair-value odds: Rayong FC 2.13 | Draw 3.23 | Chiangrai United 4.55. Rayong FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayong FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rayong FC if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rayong FC 80% | Chiangrai United 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: WHA Rayong Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Nov 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayong FC 47% | Draw 31% | Chiangrai United 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Rayong FC 1.55 / Chiangrai United 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Rayong FC attack 0.819 / def 1.305 | Chiangrai United attack 0.700 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.689 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Rayong FC (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Rayong FC xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Chiangrai United xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 3 November 2024 at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What was the final score in Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United?
Rayong FC 2 - 0 Chiangrai United.
Where is Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at WHA Rayong Stadium.
What competition is Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United part of?
Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Rayong FC a 47% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Rayong FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Rayong FC and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Chiangrai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rayong FC and Chiangrai United in?
Rayong FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Rayong FC's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Chiangrai United's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (0.70x) against Rayong FC's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 11/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayong FC Win
47%
2.14
31%
3.22
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Rayong FC xG
Total xG
2.58
1.03
Chiangrai United xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
5%
21.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.1 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Rayong FC and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Rayong FC and 1.03 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rayong FC's recent record stands at 2W 2D 7L from 11 games, a 0.73 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Rayong FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chiangrai United, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 8L across 11 games — 0.64 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.73 PPG for Rayong FC against 0.64 for Chiangrai United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rayong FC have managed 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chiangrai United's away record stands at 0W 0D 5L across 5 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chiangrai United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayong FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rayong FC are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 2.18 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 0.82 scored and 2.09 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayong FC have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 11 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayong FC
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayong FC and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Rayong FC have gone 2W 2D 7L in their last 11 games (0.73 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 2W 1D 8L in their last 11 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rayong FC at home or Chiangrai United away?
Rayong FC's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rayong FC at home: 1.00 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rayong FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Rayong FC
1
Draws
1
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayong FC and Chiangrai United?
From 4 meetings on record, Rayong FC have won 2, Chiangrai United have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rayong FC and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when Rayong FC 1-1 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Rayong FC and Chiangrai United?
Rayong FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rayong FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rayong FC 80%, Chiangrai United 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Rayong FC) and 40% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Chiangrai United in 80%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayong FC home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayong FC play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 80% of Rayong FC's recent matches and 20% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayong FC vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Rayong FC's recent games and 40% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rayong FC and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Rayong FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayong FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Chiangrai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayong FC beat Chiangrai United 2-0 at WHA Rayong Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayong FC 1.55 xG and Chiangrai United 1.03 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Chiangrai United landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayong FC attack 0.82 / defence 1.30 against Chiangrai United attack 0.70 / defence 1.12, drawn from 11/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rayong FC 47% | Draw 31% | Chiangrai United 22%, with Rayong FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayong FC 64%, Chiangrai United 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rayong FC's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rayong FC 0.73 PPG, Chiangrai United 0.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayong FC win broke the near-deadlock. Rayong FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.