Ratchaburi 1-1 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 46%, yet in-form Uthai Thani provide a compelling counter-argument — this Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dragon Solar Park plays host to Ratchaburi versus Uthai Thani in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 17 August 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form
Ratchaburi (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Ratchaburi are significantly better at Dragon Solar Park than their overall form suggests.
Uthai Thani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Uthai Thani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Uthai Thani have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Uthai Thani are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Ratchaburi, 1 for Uthai Thani and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Ratchaburi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Uthai Thani half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 48% versus Uthai Thani 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 52% | Uthai Thani 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.70 xG and Uthai Thani 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.005 / defence 1.161 | Uthai Thani attack 0.867 / defence 0.991. League average goals — home 1.706 / away 1.308. Data: 31 Ratchaburi games / 31 Uthai Thani games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 46% | Draw 24% | Uthai Thani 30%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Uthai Thani 3.33. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Uthai Thani (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 50% | Uthai Thani 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 46% | Draw 24% | Uthai Thani 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 60% | xG Ratchaburi 1.70 / Uthai Thani 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.005 / def 1.161 | Uthai Thani attack 0.867 / def 0.991 | league avg home 1.706 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Uthai Thani xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Ratchaburi 1 - 1 Uthai Thani.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani part of?
Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 46% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani?
Record (2 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 0 | Uthai Thani 1W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Uthai Thani (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 1.00x the league average against Uthai Thani's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (0.87x) against Ratchaburi's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
46%
2.15
24%
4.21
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
3.02
1.32
Uthai Thani xG
2.15
46%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
12%
8.04
5%
18.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.3 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.32 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ratchaburi come into this having played 31 games, going 11W 6D 14L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Uthai Thani sit at 1.13 PPG from 31 outings (9W 8D 14L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Uthai Thani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.26 PPG for Ratchaburi against 1.13 for Uthai Thani. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ratchaburi's home form reads 8W 1D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Uthai Thani have taken 1.06 points per game from 16 outings (5W 2D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.26 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Uthai Thani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 11W 6D 14L in their last 31 games (1.26 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 9W 8D 14L in their last 31 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Uthai Thani away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.56 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Ratchaburi go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
1
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 3-1 Uthai Thani.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 56%, Uthai Thani 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Ratchaburi and 69% for Uthai Thani. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Uthai Thani in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Uthai Thani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 50% of Uthai Thani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Ratchaburi's matches and 69% of Uthai Thani's.
Do Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi and Uthai Thani finished level at 1-1 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 2, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.70 xG and Uthai Thani 1.32 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.00 / defence 1.16 against Uthai Thani attack 0.87 / defence 0.99, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 46% | Draw 24% | Uthai Thani 30%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 52%, Uthai Thani 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.26 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.