Ratchaburi 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ratchaburi (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ratchaburi face Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Nakhon Ratchasima FC travel to Dragon Solar Park to take on Ratchaburi. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 January 2026, 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dragon Solar Park, Ratchaburi have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dragon Solar Park.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 0W 1D 9L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Ratchaburi are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 1.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Ratchaburi, 1 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2025, ended 2–0 with Ratchaburi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Ratchaburi trading profile (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC trading profile (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 53% versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 53% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.75 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.842 / defence 0.784 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.812 / defence 1.342. League average goals — home 1.554 / away 1.113. Nakhon Ratchasima FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.342 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Ratchaburi's defence rating of 0.784 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Ratchaburi games / 45 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 61% | Draw 25% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 14%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Ratchaburi (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 40% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 61% | Draw 25% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 43% | xG Ratchaburi 1.75 / Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.842 / def 0.784 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.812 / def 1.342 | league avg home 1.554 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
43%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Ratchaburi 1 - 0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC part of?
Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 61% chance of winning, Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 14% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Record (7 meetings): Ratchaburi 3W | Draws 3 | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ratchaburi's attack rating (0.84) and Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.1%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
61%
1.63
25%
4.02
14%
7.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.46
0.71
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
7.34
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
17%
5.78
Win to Nil
30%
3.30
2%
42.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 10.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 0.71 for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 25W 9D 11L from 45 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC, meanwhile, have gone 8W 15D 22L across 45 games — 0.87 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ratchaburi by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nakhon Ratchasima FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 13W 6D 3L from 22 games — 2.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's away record stands at 2W 6D 14L across 22 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Ratchasima FC are on 0.98 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 25W 9D 11L in their last 45 games (1.87 PPG), while Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 8W 15D 22L in their last 45 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Nakhon Ratchasima FC away?
Ratchaburi's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 2.05 PPG; Nakhon Ratchasima FC away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Nakhon Ratchasima FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ratchaburi have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2024, when Ratchaburi won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting Nakhon Ratchasima FC specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
1
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 4, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Ratchaburi 1-0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 46%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Ratchaburi) and 54% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Nakhon Ratchasima FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Nakhon Ratchasima FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 46% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 54% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Nakhon Ratchasima FC tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Nakhon Ratchasima FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ratchaburi edge out Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-0 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.75 xG and Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.71 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.84 / defence 0.78 against Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.34, drawn from 46/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 61% | Draw 25% | Nakhon Ratchasima FC 14%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 53%, Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ratchaburi arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 0.87. Form held, and they took the win. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.