Ratchaburi 2-3 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nakhon Pathom make the trip to Dragon Solar Park to face Ratchaburi in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 August 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Ratchaburi (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ratchaburi haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Ratchaburi's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Dragon Solar Park this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dragon Solar Park. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Ratchaburi are significantly better at Dragon Solar Park than their overall form suggests.
Nakhon Pathom have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Nakhon Pathom haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Nakhon Pathom's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Ratchaburi against 1.00 for Nakhon Pathom. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Ratchaburi, 1 for Nakhon Pathom and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Ratchaburi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Ratchaburi — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Nakhon Pathom — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 47% versus Nakhon Pathom 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 50% | Nakhon Pathom 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.87 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.970 / defence 0.967 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.873 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.821 / away 1.369. Data: 30 Ratchaburi games / 30 Nakhon Pathom games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 53% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Pathom 23%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Nakhon Pathom 4.35. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ratchaburi at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 40% | Nakhon Pathom 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 53% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Pathom 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Ratchaburi 1.87 / Nakhon Pathom 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.970 / def 0.967 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.873 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.821 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.87
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Nakhon Pathom xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 August 2024 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom?
Ratchaburi 2 - 3 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 53% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Ratchaburi and Nakhon Pathom will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Nakhon Pathom?
Record (2 meetings): Ratchaburi 1W | Draws 0 | Nakhon Pathom 1W.
What form are Ratchaburi and Nakhon Pathom in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ratchaburi's attack at 0.97x the league average against Nakhon Pathom's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nakhon Pathom's attack (0.87x) against Ratchaburi's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.15
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.87
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
3.02
1.16
Nakhon Pathom xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
17%
5.96
4%
28.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 1.87 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.16 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ratchaburi's recent record stands at 11W 6D 13L from 30 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five. Ratchaburi haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Nakhon Pathom, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 13L across 30 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. Nakhon Pathom haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for Ratchaburi against 1.10 for Nakhon Pathom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ratchaburi have managed 8W 1D 6L from 15 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nakhon Pathom's away record stands at 3W 5D 7L across 15 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ratchaburi are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 1.23 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom in 70%.
Last 30 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Pre-Season
Nakhon Pathom
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 11W 6D 13L in their last 30 games (1.30 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 8W 9D 13L in their last 30 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or Nakhon Pathom away?
Ratchaburi's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 1.67 PPG; Nakhon Pathom away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or Nakhon Pathom been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Nakhon Pathom in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 1-6 on 30 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ratchaburi have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Nakhon Pathom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Ratchaburi
0
Draws
2
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Nakhon Pathom?
From 4 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 2, Nakhon Pathom have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 1-6 Ratchaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Nakhon Pathom see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 53%, Nakhon Pathom 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Ratchaburi and 53% for Nakhon Pathom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Nakhon Pathom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Ratchaburi's games and 67% of Nakhon Pathom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs Nakhon Pathom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Ratchaburi's matches and 53% of Nakhon Pathom's.
Do Ratchaburi and Nakhon Pathom tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nakhon Pathom in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nakhon Pathom defy the odds to beat Ratchaburi 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nakhon Pathom beat Ratchaburi 2-3 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 1, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.87 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.16 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Nakhon Pathom outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.97 / defence 0.97 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.87 / defence 1.06, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 53% | Draw 24% | Nakhon Pathom 23%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Nakhon Pathom win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 50%, Nakhon Pathom 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.30 PPG, Nakhon Pathom 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nakhon Pathom win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.