Ratchaburi 2-0 Chiangmai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chiangmai United at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs Chiangmai United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 7 as Ratchaburi welcome Chiangmai United to Mitr Phol Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Ratchaburi have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets in 5 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangmai United — All Games: 1W 2D 3L from 6 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 0.83 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.17 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Chiangmai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Chiangmai United have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.33 exceeds their overall 0.83 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Ratchaburi) versus 0.83 (Chiangmai United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Chiangmai United in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 60%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 40% versus Chiangmai United 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ratchaburi 20% | Chiangmai United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.41 xG and Chiangmai United 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 0.929 / defence 1.150 | Chiangmai United attack 0.960 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 1.083 / away 1.404. Chiangmai United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.400 — this is suppressing Ratchaburi's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Ratchaburi games / 6 Chiangmai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 31% | Draw 31% | Chiangmai United 38%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Chiangmai United 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Chiangmai United as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangmai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ratchaburi 40% | Chiangmai United 67%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs Chiangmai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Mitr Phol Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 31% | Draw 31% | Chiangmai United 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 63% | xG Ratchaburi 1.41 / Chiangmai United 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 0.929 / def 1.150 | Chiangmai United attack 0.960 / def 1.400 | league avg home 1.083 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Chiangmai United (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Chiangmai United xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs Chiangmai United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs Chiangmai United kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 10 October 2021 at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs Chiangmai United?
Ratchaburi 2 - 0 Chiangmai United.
Where is Ratchaburi vs Chiangmai United being played?
The match is being played at Mitr Phol Stadium.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs Chiangmai United part of?
Ratchaburi vs Chiangmai United is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs Chiangmai United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 31% chance of winning, Chiangmai United a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Chiangmai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs Chiangmai United?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Ratchaburi and Chiangmai United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs Chiangmai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chiangmai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ratchaburi and Chiangmai United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Chiangmai United (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.17 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Ratchaburi's attack rating (0.93) and Chiangmai United's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangmai United's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangmai United Win
31%
3.20
31%
3.20
38%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.96
1.55
Chiangmai United xG
3.20
31%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.67
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
7%
15.06
9%
10.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.3 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs Chiangmai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and Chiangmai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.55 for Chiangmai United, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs Chiangmai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ratchaburi come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 2D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Chiangmai United sit at 1.00 PPG from 5 outings (1W 2D 2L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangmai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.00 PPG, Chiangmai United on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Ratchaburi are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Chiangmai United are on 1.20 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangmai United in 60%.
Defensively: Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Early Season
Chiangmai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and Chiangmai United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while Chiangmai United have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 (1.00 PPG).
Have Ratchaburi or Chiangmai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Chiangmai United in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Ratchaburi
0
Draws
0
Chiangmai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and Chiangmai United?
From 2 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 2, Chiangmai United have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and Chiangmai United last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Chiangmai United 1-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and Chiangmai United?
Ratchaburi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Chiangmai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 40%, Chiangmai United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Ratchaburi) and 60% (Chiangmai United).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ratchaburi have failed to score in 40% of games; Chiangmai United in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / Chiangmai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play Chiangmai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Ratchaburi's recent matches and 60% of Chiangmai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ratchaburi vs Chiangmai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Ratchaburi's recent games and 60% of Chiangmai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ratchaburi and Chiangmai United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Chiangmai United in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ratchaburi cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Chiangmai United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Chiangmai United 2-0 at Mitr Phol Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.41 xG and Chiangmai United 1.55 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Chiangmai United landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 0.93 / defence 1.15 against Chiangmai United attack 0.96 / defence 1.40, drawn from 5/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 31% | Draw 31% | Chiangmai United 38%, with Chiangmai United to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ratchaburi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 20%, Chiangmai United 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Chiangmai United's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.00 PPG, Chiangmai United 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Ratchaburi scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Chiangmai United managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.