Ratchaburi 0-0 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ratchaburi at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ratchaburi host BG Pathum United at Dragon Solar Park in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ratchaburi — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi at Dragon Solar Park this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, BG Pathum United have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Ratchaburi have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Ratchaburi have won 3, BG Pathum United 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Ratchaburi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Ratchaburi in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BG Pathum United in-play and half-time data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ratchaburi 58% versus BG Pathum United 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ratchaburi 58% | BG Pathum United 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ratchaburi 1.72 xG and BG Pathum United 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ratchaburi attack 1.136 / defence 0.815 | BG Pathum United attack 1.044 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.515 / away 1.240. Data: 40 Ratchaburi games / 41 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 30% | BG Pathum United 20%. Fair-value odds: Ratchaburi 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | BG Pathum United 5.00. Ratchaburi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ratchaburi are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ratchaburi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Ratchaburi 50% | BG Pathum United 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Dragon Solar Park • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 30% | BG Pathum United 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Ratchaburi 1.72 / BG Pathum United 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Ratchaburi attack 1.136 / def 0.815 | BG Pathum United attack 1.044 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.515 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Ratchaburi (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Ratchaburi xG
Expected Goals
1.05
BG Pathum United xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 12:30 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Dragon Solar Park.
What was the final score in Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United?
Ratchaburi 0 - 0 BG Pathum United.
Where is Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at Dragon Solar Park.
What competition is Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United part of?
Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Ratchaburi a 50% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ratchaburi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United?
Record (8 meetings): Ratchaburi 3W | Draws 1 | BG Pathum United 4W.
What form are Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United in?
Ratchaburi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. BG Pathum United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ratchaburi's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against BG Pathum United's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, BG Pathum United's attack versus Ratchaburi's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ratchaburi Win
50%
2.01
30%
3.30
20%
5.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Ratchaburi xG
Total xG
2.78
1.05
BG Pathum United xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
5.01
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
18%
5.59
Win to Nil
17%
5.77
4%
27.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Ratchaburi and 1.05 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Ratchaburi have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 22W 8D 10L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United's form line: 19W 11D 10L from 40 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ratchaburi on 1.85 PPG, BG Pathum United on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ratchaburi have posted 2.00 PPG from 19 outings (11W 5D 3L).
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 5W 8D 6L from 19 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.70 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BG Pathum United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ratchaburi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ratchaburi are averaging 2.10 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.48 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ratchaburi
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Ratchaburi have gone 22W 8D 10L in their last 40 games (1.85 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 19W 11D 10L in their last 40 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ratchaburi at home or BG Pathum United away?
Ratchaburi's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ratchaburi at home: 2.00 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Ratchaburi or BG Pathum United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ratchaburi have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, BG Pathum United in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Nov 2022, when Ratchaburi won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ratchaburi's record when hosting BG Pathum United specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ratchaburi
3
Draws
4
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United?
From 10 meetings on record, Ratchaburi have won 3, BG Pathum United have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when BG Pathum United 2-2 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ratchaburi 53%, BG Pathum United 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Ratchaburi) and 58% (BG Pathum United). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ratchaburi home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ratchaburi play BG Pathum United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Ratchaburi's games and 74% of BG Pathum United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ratchaburi vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Ratchaburi's matches and 58% of BG Pathum United's.
Do Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Ratchaburi have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Ratchaburi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi and BG Pathum United finished level at 0-0 at Dragon Solar Park, Regular Season - 12, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ratchaburi 1.72 xG and BG Pathum United 1.05 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Ratchaburi fell 1.7 short of their projected output. BG Pathum United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ratchaburi attack 1.14 / defence 0.81 against BG Pathum United attack 1.04 / defence 1.00, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ratchaburi 50% | Draw 30% | BG Pathum United 20%, with Ratchaburi to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ratchaburi 58%, BG Pathum United 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ratchaburi's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ratchaburi 1.85 PPG, BG Pathum United 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.