Prachuap 1-0 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Lamphun Warrior travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Sunday 16 October 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 0W 3D 5L from 8 Thai League 1 matches — 0.38 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.12 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 12% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior away from home this season: 0W 3D 2L from 5 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Prachuap) versus 0.38 (Lamphun Warrior). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 88% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 62% versus Lamphun Warrior 12%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 75% | Lamphun Warrior 12%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.19 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 1.053 / defence 1.348 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.636 / defence 0.853. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.166. Data: 38 Prachuap games / 8 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 40% | Draw 29% | Lamphun Warrior 31%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Lamphun Warrior 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 60% | Lamphun Warrior 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 40% | Draw 29% | Lamphun Warrior 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Prachuap 1.19 / Lamphun Warrior 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 1.053 / def 1.348 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.636 / def 0.853 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Lamphun Warrior xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Prachuap 1 - 0 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 40% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior in?
Prachuap (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 0W-3D-5L in 8 | 0.38 PPG | GF 0.25 / GA 1.12 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Prachuap's attack at 1.05x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 0.85x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
40%
2.50
29%
3.39
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.19
1.00
Lamphun Warrior xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
31%
3.28
Win to Nil
15%
6.80
9%
10.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.00 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 1D 5L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lamphun Warrior sit at 0.38 PPG from 8 outings (0W 3D 5L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Prachuap's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Lamphun Warrior have taken 0.50 points per game from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 0.25 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Lamphun Warrior in 12%.
Last 8 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 2W 1D 5L in their last 8 games (0.88 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 0W 3D 5L in their last 8 (0.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Prachuap's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.00 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Prachuap's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Prachuap
4
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 3, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Lamphun Warrior tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 75%, Lamphun Warrior 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Prachuap) and 25% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Lamphun Warrior in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Prachuap's recent matches and 25% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Prachuap's recent games and 25% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Prachuap edge out Lamphun Warrior 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Lamphun Warrior 1-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.19 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.00 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lamphun Warrior landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 1.05 / defence 1.35 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.64 / defence 0.85, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 40% | Draw 29% | Lamphun Warrior 31%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 75%, Lamphun Warrior 12%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 12% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 88% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Prachuap arrived the stronger side — 0.88 PPG against 0.38. That form edge translated into the three points. Prachuap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.