Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 41%, yet in-form Prachuap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Lamphun Warrior travel to Sam Ao Stadium to take on Prachuap. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 May 2027, 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Prachuap have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Prachuap at Sam Ao Stadium this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sam Ao Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lamphun Warrior have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lamphun Warrior away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Prachuap carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Prachuap, 1 for Lamphun Warrior and 4 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 8 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 47% versus Lamphun Warrior 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 42% | Lamphun Warrior 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 0.98 xG and Lamphun Warrior 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.907 / defence 0.727 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.163 / defence 0.746. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.456. Lamphun Warrior's defence strength of 0.746 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Prachuap's defence rating of 0.727 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Prachuap games / 37 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 28% | Draw 31% | Lamphun Warrior 41%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 3.57 | Draw 3.23 | Lamphun Warrior 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Prachuap (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 40% | Lamphun Warrior 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 May 2027, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 28% | Draw 31% | Lamphun Warrior 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Prachuap 0.98 / Lamphun Warrior 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.907 / def 0.727 | Lamphun Warrior attack 1.163 / def 0.746 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.456 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Lamphun Warrior xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Saturday 1 May 2027 at Sam Ao Stadium.
Where is Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 28% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (8 meetings): Prachuap 3W | Draws 4 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior in?
Prachuap (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Prachuap's attack at 0.91x the league average against Lamphun Warrior's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
28%
3.54
31%
3.24
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.21
1.23
Lamphun Warrior xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
8%
12.14
15%
6.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 13.5 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.23 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap come into this having played 36 games, going 15W 13D 8L for 1.61 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Prachuap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Lamphun Warrior sit at 1.08 PPG from 36 outings (7W 18D 11L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Prachuap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Lamphun Warrior — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Prachuap's home form reads 10W 7D 1L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Prachuap are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lamphun Warrior have taken 1.11 points per game from 18 outings (4W 8D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Prachuap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lamphun Warrior in 64%.
Defensively: Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Early Season
Lamphun Warrior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 15W 13D 8L in their last 36 games (1.61 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 7W 18D 11L in their last 36 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Prachuap's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 2.06 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Lamphun Warrior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lamphun Warrior in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Prachuap's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Prachuap
4
Draws
1
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior?
From 8 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 3, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 39%, Lamphun Warrior 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Prachuap and 39% for Lamphun Warrior.
On the defensive side: Prachuap keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Lamphun Warrior in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Lamphun Warrior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Prachuap's recent matches and 56% of Lamphun Warrior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Prachuap vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Prachuap's recent games and 39% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.