Prachuap 1-2 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 41%, yet in-form Buriram United provide a compelling counter-argument — this Prachuap vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Prachuap welcome Buriram United to Sam Ao Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 28 December 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Prachuap have posted 5W 1D 4L at Sam Ao Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Prachuap are significantly better at Sam Ao Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Buriram United stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Buriram United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Buriram United have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Buriram United's 1.70 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Prachuap's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Prachuap register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Buriram United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Prachuap have won 1, Buriram United 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2023, ended 0–1 with Buriram United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Prachuap trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Buriram United trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 67% versus Buriram United 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 54% | Buriram United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 1.53 xG and Buriram United 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.925 / defence 1.026 | Buriram United attack 0.932 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.323. Data: 44 Prachuap games / 43 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 41% | Draw 29% | Buriram United 29%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Buriram United 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Prachuap at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Buriram United (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Prachuap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Prachuap 60% | Buriram United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Dec 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 41% | Draw 29% | Buriram United 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Prachuap 1.53 / Buriram United 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.925 / def 1.026 | Buriram United attack 0.932 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Prachuap (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Buriram United xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs Buriram United kick off?
Prachuap vs Buriram United kicked off at 11:00 on Thursday 28 December 2023 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Prachuap 1 - 2 Buriram United.
Where is Prachuap vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs Buriram United part of?
Prachuap vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 41% chance of winning, Buriram United a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Prachuap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Prachuap and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Buriram United?
Record (4 meetings): Prachuap 1W | Draws 0 | Buriram United 3W.
What form are Prachuap and Buriram United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Buriram United (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Prachuap's attack rating (0.93) and Buriram United's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Prachuap's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
41%
2.42
29%
3.42
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.79
1.27
Buriram United xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
12%
8.58
6%
15.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.7 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.8 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Prachuap and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.27 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs Buriram United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Prachuap come into this having played 43 games, going 10W 12D 21L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Buriram United sit at 2.28 PPG from 43 outings (29W 11D 3L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Buriram United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Buriram United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.30 PPG clear of Prachuap — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Prachuap's home form reads 8W 5D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Buriram United have taken 2.14 points per game from 21 outings (13W 6D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Buriram United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Prachuap are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.28 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Buriram United in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
Buriram United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 10W 12D 21L in their last 43 games (0.98 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 29W 11D 3L in their last 43 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 1.38 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Prachuap or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Buriram United in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Prachuap and Buriram United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Sep 2024, when Buriram United won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Prachuap's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Prachuap
1
Draws
8
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 1, Buriram United have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 4 January 2026, when Prachuap 1-1 Buriram United.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and Buriram United?
Buriram United have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 67%, Buriram United 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Prachuap) and 57% (Buriram United).
On the defensive side: Buriram United in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Prachuap's games and 57% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Prachuap's recent games and 57% of Buriram United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and Buriram United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Buriram United defy the odds to beat Prachuap 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Buriram United beat Prachuap 1-2 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 1.53 xG and Buriram United 1.27 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Buriram United attack 0.93 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 41% | Draw 29% | Buriram United 29%, with Prachuap to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Buriram United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 54%, Buriram United 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Buriram United's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.