Prachuap 0-0 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BG Pathum United at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Prachuap vs BG Pathum United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
BG Pathum United make the trip to Sam Ao Stadium to face Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Sunday 28 November 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Prachuap's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 3L across 6 games at Sam Ao Stadium this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
BG Pathum United have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BG Pathum United away from home this season: 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.33 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
BG Pathum United arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Prachuap half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BG Pathum United half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Prachuap 57% versus BG Pathum United 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Prachuap 50% | BG Pathum United 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Prachuap 0.89 xG and BG Pathum United 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Prachuap attack 0.740 / defence 1.316 | BG Pathum United attack 0.862 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.127. Prachuap's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 14 Prachuap games / 14 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Prachuap 26% | Draw 29% | BG Pathum United 46%. Fair-value odds: Prachuap 3.85 | Draw 3.45 | BG Pathum United 2.17. BG Pathum United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, BG Pathum United are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Prachuap 67% | BG Pathum United 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Prachuap vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Sam Ao Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Prachuap 26% | Draw 29% | BG Pathum United 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Prachuap 0.89 / BG Pathum United 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Prachuap attack 0.740 / def 1.316 | BG Pathum United attack 0.862 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Prachuap xG
Expected Goals
1.28
BG Pathum United xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Prachuap vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Prachuap vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Sam Ao Stadium.
What was the final score in Prachuap vs BG Pathum United?
Prachuap 0 - 0 BG Pathum United.
Where is Prachuap vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at Sam Ao Stadium.
What competition is Prachuap vs BG Pathum United part of?
Prachuap vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Prachuap vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Prachuap a 26% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 46% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Prachuap vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Prachuap and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Prachuap vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and BG Pathum United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Prachuap and BG Pathum United in?
Prachuap (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. BG Pathum United (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Prachuap's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against BG Pathum United's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — BG Pathum United's attack (0.86x) against Prachuap's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
26%
3.88
29%
3.49
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Prachuap xG
Total xG
2.16
1.28
BG Pathum United xG
3.88
26%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
7%
13.91
19%
5.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 14.7 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Prachuap vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Prachuap and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Prachuap and 1.28 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Prachuap vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Prachuap's recent record stands at 2W 4D 8L from 14 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United, meanwhile, have gone 8W 2D 4L across 14 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours BG Pathum United by 1.15 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Prachuap heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Prachuap have managed 0W 3D 3L from 6 games — 0.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BG Pathum United's away record stands at 2W 2D 2L across 6 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BG Pathum United's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BG Pathum United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Prachuap are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.14 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: BG Pathum United in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Prachuap
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Prachuap and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Prachuap have gone 2W 4D 8L in their last 14 games (0.71 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 8W 2D 4L in their last 14 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Prachuap at home or BG Pathum United away?
BG Pathum United's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Prachuap at home: 0.50 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Prachuap or BG Pathum United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Prachuap have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, BG Pathum United in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BG Pathum United won 7-2 on 6 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Prachuap have gone 0W 5D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against BG Pathum United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Prachuap
6
Draws
4
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Prachuap and BG Pathum United?
From 10 meetings on record, Prachuap have won 0, BG Pathum United have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Prachuap and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when BG Pathum United 3-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Prachuap and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Prachuap 67%, BG Pathum United 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Prachuap) and 33% (BG Pathum United).
On the defensive side: BG Pathum United in 33%; Prachuap have failed to score in 33% of games; BG Pathum United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Prachuap home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Prachuap play BG Pathum United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Prachuap's games and 50% of BG Pathum United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Prachuap vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Prachuap's recent games and 33% of BG Pathum United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Prachuap and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Prachuap have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Prachuap's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap and BG Pathum United finished level at 0-0 at Sam Ao Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Prachuap 0.89 xG and BG Pathum United 1.28 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Prachuap fell 0.9 short of their projected output. BG Pathum United landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Prachuap attack 0.74 / defence 1.32 against BG Pathum United attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Prachuap 26% | Draw 29% | BG Pathum United 46%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Prachuap 50%, BG Pathum United 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Prachuap's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, BG Pathum United arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.