Port FC vs Ratchaburi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Ratchaburi travel to PAT Stadium to take on Port FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 December 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Port FC — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Port FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Port FC's form when playing at home: 9W 1D 0L across 10 games at PAT Stadium this term (2.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ratchaburi stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ratchaburi have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Port FC 2.50 PPG, Ratchaburi 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 4 wins for Port FC, 2 for Ratchaburi and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Port FC in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Ratchaburi in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 46% versus Ratchaburi 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 51% | Ratchaburi 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.83 xG and Ratchaburi 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.287 / defence 0.989 | Ratchaburi attack 1.082 / defence 0.976. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.292. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.287 — their λ of 1.83 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 35 Port FC games / 35 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 47% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 28%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Ratchaburi 3.57. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.21 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 50% | Ratchaburi 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Dec 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 47% | Draw 24% | Ratchaburi 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Port FC 1.83 / Ratchaburi 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.287 / def 0.989 | Ratchaburi attack 1.082 / def 0.976 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Port FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Ratchaburi xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Port FC vs Ratchaburi is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Saturday 12 December 2026 at PAT Stadium.
Where is Port FC vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Ratchaburi part of?
Port FC vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 47% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Port FC and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Ratchaburi?
Record (10 meetings): Port FC 4W | Draws 4 | Ratchaburi 2W.
What form are Port FC and Ratchaburi in?
Port FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port FC's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Ratchaburi's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
47%
2.11
24%
4.11
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Port FC xG
Total xG
3.21
1.38
Ratchaburi xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
5%
21.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 10.2 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Port FC and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Port FC and 1.38 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Port FC have picked up 2.06 PPG on a 22W 6D 7L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Port FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ratchaburi's form line: 21W 6D 8L from 35 games, 1.97 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Ratchaburi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port FC on 2.06 PPG, Ratchaburi on 1.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Port FC have posted 2.53 PPG from 17 outings (13W 4D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.06 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 10W 2D 5L from 17 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.89 scored and 0.97 conceded. Port FC's scoring rate against Ratchaburi's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Ratchaburi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 22W 6D 7L in their last 35 games (2.06 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 21W 6D 8L in their last 35 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Ratchaburi away?
Port FC's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.53 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Port FC or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Ratchaburi specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Port FC
4
Draws
2
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Ratchaburi have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Port FC 2-1 Ratchaburi.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Ratchaburi?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 76% of the time.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 47%, Ratchaburi 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Port FC and 65% for Ratchaburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Port FC's games and 71% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Port FC's matches and 65% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Port FC and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.