Port FC 2-0 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Prachuap at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Prachuap in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 24 October 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 2L from 8 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.25 conceded. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 2W 1D 1L this season (4 games, 1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Prachuap have collected 1.12 PPG across 8 Thai League 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 3L. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.12 per game is modest, conceding 1.38 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Prachuap away from home this season: 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Port FC, 1.12 for Prachuap — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Port FC — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Prachuap — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 50% versus Prachuap 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 38% | Prachuap 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.30 xG and Prachuap 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.009 / defence 1.175 | Prachuap attack 0.893 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 0.985 / away 1.240. Prachuap bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing Port FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Port FC games / 8 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 37% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 37%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Prachuap 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 25% | Prachuap 80%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Oct 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 37% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Port FC 1.30 / Prachuap 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.009 / def 1.175 | Prachuap attack 0.893 / def 1.307 | league avg home 0.985 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Prachuap xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Port FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 October 2021 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Prachuap?
Port FC 2 - 0 Prachuap.
Where is Port FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Prachuap part of?
Port FC vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 37% chance of winning, Prachuap a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Port FC and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Prachuap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port FC and Prachuap in?
Port FC (all comps): 3W-3D-2L in 8 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Prachuap (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.12 / GA 1.38 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Port FC's attack at 1.01x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (0.89x) against Port FC's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.1%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Prachuap Win
37%
2.72
26%
3.79
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.60
1.30
Prachuap xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
10%
10.00
10%
9.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Port FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Port FC and 1.30 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port FC's recent record stands at 3W 3D 2L from 8 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 3L across 8 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Port FC against 1.12 for Prachuap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Prachuap's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.12 PPG overall record — Prachuap travel well.
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.12 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Prachuap in 62%.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 3W 3D 2L in their last 8 games (1.50 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Prachuap away?
Port FC's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.75 PPG; Prachuap away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Port FC or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Prachuap in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Port FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won 5-2 on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Port FC
3
Draws
2
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 5, Prachuap have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Port FC 3-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Prachuap?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Prachuap see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 25%, Prachuap 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Port FC) and 75% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Port FC's recent matches and 75% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Port FC's recent games and 75% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Prachuap tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Prachuap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Prachuap 2-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.30 xG and Prachuap 1.30 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Prachuap landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.01 / defence 1.18 against Prachuap attack 0.89 / defence 1.31, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 37% | Draw 26% | Prachuap 37%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 38%, Prachuap 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Prachuap's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.50 PPG, Prachuap 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.