Port FC 3-1 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Port FC face Prachuap.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PAT Stadium plays host to Port FC versus Prachuap in Thai League 1 (matchday 4). Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Port FC's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Port FC have gone 7W 1D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Prachuap have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Prachuap away from home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Port FC, 1.80 for Prachuap — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Port FC's last 10 home games and Prachuap's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Port FC's games and 70% of Prachuap's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Port FC, 1 for Prachuap and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 28 Jan 2023, ended Port FC 1–1 Prachuap — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Port FC — key trading statistics (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Prachuap — key trading statistics (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 76% and Prachuap 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 61% | Prachuap 54%). Note also that Prachuap surrender HT leads in 30% of cases while Port FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 67% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.40 xG and Prachuap 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.085 / defence 0.981 | Prachuap attack 0.943 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.073. Data: built from Port FC's last 33 games and Prachuap's last 33.
Result probabilities: Port FC 46% | Draw 29% | Prachuap 26%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.19 | Draw 3.51 | Prachuap 3.86. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Port FC's last 10 home games and Prachuap's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Port FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Prachuap 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, matchday 4 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 46% | Draw 29% | Prachuap 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Port FC 1.40 / Prachuap 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.085 / def 0.981 | Prachuap attack 0.943 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Port FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Prachuap xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Port FC vs Prachuap FAQs
What time does Port FC vs Prachuap kick off?
Port FC vs Prachuap kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 17 September 2023 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Prachuap?
Port FC 3 - 1 Prachuap.
Where is Port FC vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Prachuap part of?
Port FC vs Prachuap is a Thai League 1 fixture (matchday 4) (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 46% chance of winning, Prachuap a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Port FC and Prachuap will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Port FC vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Port FC's attack at 1.08x the league average against Prachuap's defence at 0.82x — combine the two and it projects 1.40 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Prachuap's attack (0.94x) against Port FC's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Port FC's last 33 games and Prachuap's last 33 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.51
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.39
0.99
Prachuap xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
25%
4.06
Win to Nil
17%
5.92
6%
15.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.7 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Port FC vs Prachuap Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Port FC and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Port FC and 0.99 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Port FC's recent record stands at 16W 11D 6L from 33 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five.
Prachuap, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 13L across 33 games — 1.21 PPG, with L-W-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Prachuap heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 10W 4D 2L from their last 16 home games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Prachuap's away record stands at 3W 5D 8L across their last 16 away games, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Port FC are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.42 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Prachuap in 64%.
Last 33 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
Port FC (Home) vs Prachuap (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Port FC
Early Season
Prachuap
Early Season
❓ Port FC vs Prachuap Form FAQs
What form are Port FC and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 16W 11D 6L in their last 33 games (1.79 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 10W 10D 13L in their last 33 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Prachuap away?
Port FC's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.12 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Port FC and Prachuap, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Thai League 1. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Port FC have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Port FC won Port FC 5-2 Prachuap on 26 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Prachuap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Port FC
3
Draws
2
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Port FC vs Prachuap H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Prachuap?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Port FC have won 5, Prachuap have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Prachuap last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Port FC 3-0 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Prachuap?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Port FC, 62% for Prachuap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Port FC and 62% for Prachuap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Port FC vs Prachuap Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Port FC and Prachuap matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Port FC's games and 62% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Port FC and Prachuap matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Port FC's matches and 62% of Prachuap's.
Do Port FC and Prachuap matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Port FC's recent matches and 75% of Prachuap's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Prachuap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Prachuap 3-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.40 xG and Prachuap 0.99 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.98 against Prachuap attack 0.94 / defence 0.82, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 46% | Draw 29% | Prachuap 26%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 61%, Prachuap 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.06 average — above their attacking norm. Prachuap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.