Port FC vs Pattani – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Port FC at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Pattani encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Pattani travel to PAT Stadium to take on Port FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 7W 3D 0L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Port FC haven't played a Thai League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Port FC at PAT Stadium this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Pattani — All Games: 0W 1D 0L from 1 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Port FC have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.94 xG and Pattani 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.134 / defence 0.909 | Pattani attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 0.956. Data: 30 Port FC games / 1 Pattani games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Port FC 63% | Draw 25% | Pattani 11%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.59 | Draw 4.00 | Pattani 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (63%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 1.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Pattani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 63% | Draw 25% | Pattani 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 47% | xG Port FC 1.94 / Pattani 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.134 / def 0.909 | Pattani attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.488 / away 0.956 • Poisson stance: Port FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Pattani xG
47%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Pattani kick off?
Port FC vs Pattani is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at PAT Stadium.
Where is Port FC vs Pattani being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Pattani part of?
Port FC vs Pattani is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Pattani?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 63% chance of winning, Pattani a 11% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Pattani?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Port FC and Pattani will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Pattani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Pattani?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port FC and Pattani in?
Port FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Pattani (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.13) and Pattani's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pattani's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/1 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 1-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
63%
1.58
25%
3.94
11%
8.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.68
0.74
Pattani xG
1.58
63%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
8.96
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
14%
6.95
Win to Nil
30%
3.30
2%
62.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Pattani?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Port FC and Pattani expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Port FC and 0.74 for Pattani, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Pattani?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Port FC have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. Port FC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Pattani's form line: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Port FC are the form team by 2.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pattani.
The Goals Picture
Port FC are averaging 4.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Pattani are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Port FC's scoring rate against Pattani's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Pattani in 0%.
Defensively: Pattani in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Pre-Season
Pattani
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Pattani in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Pattani have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
Have Port FC or Pattani been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Pattani in 100%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Pattani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Pattani?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Port FC's recent matches and 0% of Pattani's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs Pattani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Port FC's recent games and 0% of Pattani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Pattani tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Pattani in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.