Port FC 2-0 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Port FC at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Port FC host Nakhon Pathom at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 October 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at PAT Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Pathom stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Nakhon Pathom have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nakhon Pathom away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Port FC carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.40 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Port FC have won 1, Nakhon Pathom 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2024, ended 6–0 with Port FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Port FC in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Nakhon Pathom in-play and half-time data (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 70% and Nakhon Pathom 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Port FC 70% | Nakhon Pathom 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 2.04 xG and Nakhon Pathom 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.238 / defence 0.892 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.875 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.683 / away 1.097. Data: 38 Port FC games / 37 Nakhon Pathom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 62% | Draw 25% | Nakhon Pathom 12%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.61 | Draw 4.00 | Nakhon Pathom 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (62%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Port FC 50% | Nakhon Pathom 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 62% | Draw 25% | Nakhon Pathom 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Port FC 2.04 / Nakhon Pathom 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.238 / def 0.892 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.875 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.683 / away 1.097 • Poisson stance: Port FC (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Nakhon Pathom xG
53%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Port FC 2 - 0 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 62% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 12% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Port FC and Nakhon Pathom will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Nakhon Pathom?
Record (2 meetings): Port FC 1W | Draws 1 | Nakhon Pathom 0W.
What form are Port FC and Nakhon Pathom in?
Port FC (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Port FC's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Pathom's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Pathom's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
62%
1.60
25%
3.94
12%
8.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.90
0.86
Nakhon Pathom xG
1.60
62%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
8.15
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
13%
7.70
Win to Nil
26%
3.78
2%
62.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.3 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Port FC and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Port FC and 0.86 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Port FC come into this having played 37 games, going 20W 11D 6L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Nakhon Pathom sit at 1.00 PPG from 37 outings (9W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.92 PPG clear of Nakhon Pathom — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Port FC's home form reads 13W 2D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Nakhon Pathom have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Port FC are averaging 2.35 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 1.14 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Nakhon Pathom in 65%.
Last 37 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
Nakhon Pathom
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 20W 11D 6L in their last 37 games (1.92 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 9W 10D 18L in their last 37 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Nakhon Pathom away?
Port FC's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.16 PPG; Nakhon Pathom away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port FC and Nakhon Pathom runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 May 2024, when Port FC won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Nakhon Pathom specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Port FC
2
Draws
0
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Nakhon Pathom?
From 4 meetings on record, Port FC have won 2, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 2-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Nakhon Pathom?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Nakhon Pathom see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 63%, Nakhon Pathom 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Port FC and 58% for Nakhon Pathom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Nakhon Pathom in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Nakhon Pathom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Port FC's games and 63% of Nakhon Pathom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Port FC's matches and 58% of Nakhon Pathom's.
Do Port FC and Nakhon Pathom tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Nakhon Pathom in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nakhon Pathom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Nakhon Pathom 2-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 2.04 xG and Nakhon Pathom 0.86 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nakhon Pathom landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.24 / defence 0.89 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.88 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 62% | Draw 25% | Nakhon Pathom 12%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 70%, Nakhon Pathom 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.