Port FC 6-0 Nakhon Pathom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Port FC host Nakhon Pathom at PAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 May 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Port FC's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at PAT Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Pathom stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Nakhon Pathom away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Port FC) versus 1.10 (Nakhon Pathom). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Port FC have won 0, Nakhon Pathom 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Aug 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Port FC in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Nakhon Pathom in-play and half-time data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 72% and Nakhon Pathom 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 69% | Nakhon Pathom 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.72 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.057 / defence 1.080 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.814 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.718 / away 1.157. Data: 59 Port FC games / 29 Nakhon Pathom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 53% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Pathom 21%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Nakhon Pathom 4.76. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 50% | Nakhon Pathom 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 53% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Pathom 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Port FC 1.72 / Nakhon Pathom 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.057 / def 1.080 | Nakhon Pathom attack 0.814 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.718 / away 1.157 • Poisson stance: Port FC (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Nakhon Pathom xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom kick off?
Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Port FC 6 - 0 Nakhon Pathom.
Where is Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom part of?
Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 53% chance of winning, Nakhon Pathom a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Port FC and Nakhon Pathom will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Nakhon Pathom?
Record (1 meetings): Port FC 0W | Draws 1 | Nakhon Pathom 0W.
What form are Port FC and Nakhon Pathom in?
Port FC (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Port FC's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Nakhon Pathom's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. The same calculation in reverse, Nakhon Pathom's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
53%
1.89
26%
3.85
21%
4.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.74
1.02
Nakhon Pathom xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
4.72
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
19%
5.23
4%
26.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.3 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Port FC and Nakhon Pathom expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Port FC and 1.02 for Nakhon Pathom, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Port FC come into this having played 29 games, going 15W 9D 5L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Nakhon Pathom sit at 1.14 PPG from 29 outings (8W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-L across their last five.
Port FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Nakhon Pathom — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Port FC's home form reads 10W 1D 3L across 14 games on their own ground, a 2.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Nakhon Pathom have taken 1.00 points per game from 14 outings (3W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Port FC are averaging 2.28 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Nakhon Pathom are on 1.28 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Nakhon Pathom in 72%.
Last 29 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Current Season
Nakhon Pathom
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Nakhon Pathom in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 15W 9D 5L in their last 29 games (1.86 PPG), while Nakhon Pathom have gone 8W 9D 12L in their last 29 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Nakhon Pathom away?
Port FC's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.21 PPG; Nakhon Pathom away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port FC and Nakhon Pathom runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 May 2024, when Port FC won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Nakhon Pathom specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Port FC
2
Draws
0
Nakhon Pathom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Nakhon Pathom?
From 4 meetings on record, Port FC have won 2, Nakhon Pathom have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Nakhon Pathom last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 2-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and Nakhon Pathom?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Nakhon Pathom see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Port FC at 64%, Nakhon Pathom at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Port FC and 50% for Nakhon Pathom. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Nakhon Pathom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Nakhon Pathom?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Port FC's games and 71% of Nakhon Pathom's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Nakhon Pathom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Port FC's matches and 50% of Nakhon Pathom's.
Do Port FC and Nakhon Pathom tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Nakhon Pathom in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Port FC run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Nakhon Pathom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Nakhon Pathom 6-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.72 xG and Nakhon Pathom 1.02 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 4.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nakhon Pathom landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.06 / defence 1.08 against Nakhon Pathom attack 0.81 / defence 0.95, drawn from 59/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 53% | Draw 26% | Nakhon Pathom 21%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 69%, Nakhon Pathom 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 72%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.