Port FC 3-1 Chonburi FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Port FC at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Port FC vs Chonburi FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Chonburi FC travel to PAT Stadium to take on Port FC. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 May 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port FC stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Port FC have posted 6W 2D 2L at PAT Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Chonburi FC have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Chonburi FC have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Port FC have the edge — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Port FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Chonburi FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
Chonburi FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Port FC's 0 victories.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Chonburi FC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Chonburi FC have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Port FC trading profile (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Chonburi FC trading profile (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Port FC 60% and Chonburi FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 52% | Chonburi FC 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.68 xG and Chonburi FC 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.046 / defence 0.979 | Chonburi FC attack 0.998 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.577 / away 1.201. Data: 58 Port FC games / 58 Chonburi FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 49% | Draw 25% | Chonburi FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Chonburi FC 3.85. Port FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Chonburi FC lead the H2H ledger, but Port FC carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Port FC as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 70% | Chonburi FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Chonburi FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 7 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 49% | Draw 25% | Chonburi FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Port FC 1.68 / Chonburi FC 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.046 / def 0.979 | Chonburi FC attack 0.998 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.577 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Port FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Chonburi FC xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Chonburi FC kick off?
Port FC vs Chonburi FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 May 2023 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Port FC 3 - 1 Chonburi FC.
Where is Port FC vs Chonburi FC being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Chonburi FC part of?
Port FC vs Chonburi FC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 49% chance of winning, Chonburi FC a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Port FC and Chonburi FC will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Chonburi FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chonburi FC?
Record (3 meetings): Port FC 0W | Draws 0 | Chonburi FC 3W.
What form are Port FC and Chonburi FC in?
Port FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Chonburi FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Port FC's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Chonburi FC's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Chonburi FC's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
49%
2.05
25%
4.01
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.85
1.17
Chonburi FC xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
5%
20.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Port FC and Chonburi FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Port FC and 1.17 for Chonburi FC, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Chonburi FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC come into this having played 58 games, going 24W 16D 18L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Chonburi FC sit at 1.50 PPG from 58 outings (25W 12D 21L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port FC on 1.52 PPG, Chonburi FC on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Port FC's home form reads 16W 6D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Port FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chonburi FC have taken 1.18 points per game from 28 outings (9W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Chonburi FC are on 1.64 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Port FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Chonburi FC in 62%.
Last 58 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Current Season
Chonburi FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Chonburi FC in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 24W 16D 18L in their last 58 games (1.52 PPG), while Chonburi FC have gone 25W 12D 21L in their last 58 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Chonburi FC away?
Port FC's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.93 PPG; Chonburi FC away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Port FC or Chonburi FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Chonburi FC in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Chonburi FC specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Port FC
0
Draws
4
Chonburi FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Chonburi FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Chonburi FC have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Chonburi FC last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Chonburi FC 3-2 Port FC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Chonburi FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 50%, Chonburi FC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Port FC) and 57% (Chonburi FC).
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Chonburi FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Chonburi FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Port FC's games and 61% of Chonburi FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Chonburi FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Port FC's recent games and 57% of Chonburi FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and Chonburi FC tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Chonburi FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Chonburi FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Chonburi FC 3-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.68 xG and Chonburi FC 1.17 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.05 / defence 0.98 against Chonburi FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.02, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 49% | Draw 25% | Chonburi FC 26%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 52%, Chonburi FC 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Chonburi FC's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.52 PPG, Chonburi FC 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm. Chonburi FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.