Port FC 3-1 Buriram United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port FC at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs Buriram United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Port FC welcome Buriram United to PAT Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Port FC at PAT Stadium this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Buriram United — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Buriram United's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Port FC) versus 2.20 (Buriram United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Port FC, 4 for Buriram United and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2025, ended 0–1 with Buriram United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Port FC in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Buriram United in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 53% versus Buriram United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 52% | Buriram United 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.89 xG and Buriram United 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 1.308 / defence 0.634 | Buriram United attack 1.423 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.049. Port FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.308 — their λ of 1.89 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Buriram United have an above-average attack strength of 1.423 — the away xG of 0.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Port FC's defence rating of 0.634 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 58 Port FC games / 58 Buriram United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 58% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 17%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Buriram United 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Port FC (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port FC at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.83 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Port FC 30% | Buriram United 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs Buriram United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 58% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 54% | xG Port FC 1.89 / Buriram United 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 1.308 / def 0.634 | Buriram United attack 1.423 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.049 • Poisson stance: Port FC (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Buriram United xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs Buriram United kick off?
Port FC vs Buriram United kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 2 May 2026 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs Buriram United?
Port FC 3 - 1 Buriram United.
Where is Port FC vs Buriram United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs Buriram United part of?
Port FC vs Buriram United is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs Buriram United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 58% chance of winning, Buriram United a 17% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs Buriram United?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Port FC and Buriram United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs Buriram United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Buriram United?
Record (9 meetings): Port FC 3W | Draws 2 | Buriram United 4W.
What form are Port FC and Buriram United in?
Port FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Buriram United (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Port FC's attack rating (1.31) and Buriram United's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Buriram United's attack versus Port FC's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
58%
1.74
26%
3.87
17%
6.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.83
0.95
Buriram United xG
1.74
58%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
6.05
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
15%
6.61
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
3%
39.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 10.5 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs Buriram United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Port FC and Buriram United expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Port FC and 0.95 for Buriram United, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs Buriram United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Port FC's recent record stands at 29W 15D 14L from 58 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Buriram United, meanwhile, have gone 44W 7D 7L across 58 games — 2.40 PPG, with W-D-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Buriram United by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Port FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Port FC have managed 17W 9D 3L from 29 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Buriram United's away record stands at 20W 5D 4L across 29 trips, a 2.24 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Port FC are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Buriram United are on 2.86 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Buriram United in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Current Season
Buriram United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and Buriram United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 29W 15D 14L in their last 58 games (1.76 PPG), while Buriram United have gone 44W 7D 7L in their last 58 (2.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or Buriram United away?
Buriram United's away record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 2.07 PPG; Buriram United away: 2.24 PPG.
Have Port FC or Buriram United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Buriram United in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Dec 2023, when Port FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port FC's record when hosting Buriram United specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Port FC
2
Draws
4
Buriram United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and Buriram United?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 4, Buriram United have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and Buriram United last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Port FC 3-1 Buriram United.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Buriram United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 55%, Buriram United 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Port FC and 76% for Buriram United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Buriram United in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / Buriram United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play Buriram United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Port FC's games and 62% of Buriram United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port FC vs Buriram United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Port FC's matches and 76% of Buriram United's.
Do Port FC and Buriram United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Buriram United in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Port FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Buriram United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Buriram United 3-1 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.89 xG and Buriram United 0.95 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Port FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 1.31 / defence 0.63 against Buriram United attack 1.42 / defence 0.98, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 58% | Draw 26% | Buriram United 17%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 52%, Buriram United 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Buriram United's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Buriram United arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.76. Form was overturned, with Port FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Buriram United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.