Port FC 1-0 BG Pathum United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BG Pathum United at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port FC vs BG Pathum United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
BG Pathum United make the trip to PAT Stadium to face Port FC in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Port FC's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at PAT Stadium, Port FC have gone 4W 1D 2L this season (7 games, 1.86 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at PAT Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
BG Pathum United (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for BG Pathum United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Port FC — key trading statistics (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BG Pathum United — key trading statistics (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port FC 46% versus BG Pathum United 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port FC 46% | BG Pathum United 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port FC 1.16 xG and BG Pathum United 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port FC attack 0.975 / defence 1.068 | BG Pathum United attack 0.946 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.039 / away 1.168. Data: 13 Port FC games / 13 BG Pathum United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port FC 35% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 36%. Fair-value odds: Port FC 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | BG Pathum United 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, BG Pathum United are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BG Pathum United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Port FC 29% | BG Pathum United 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port FC vs BG Pathum United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: PAT Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port FC 35% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Port FC 1.16 / BG Pathum United 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Port FC attack 0.975 / def 1.068 | BG Pathum United attack 0.946 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.039 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: BG Pathum United (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Port FC xG
Expected Goals
1.18
BG Pathum United xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port FC vs BG Pathum United kick off?
Port FC vs BG Pathum United kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at PAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Port FC vs BG Pathum United?
Port FC 1 - 0 BG Pathum United.
Where is Port FC vs BG Pathum United being played?
The match is being played at PAT Stadium.
What competition is Port FC vs BG Pathum United part of?
Port FC vs BG Pathum United is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Port FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our statistical model gives Port FC a 35% chance of winning, BG Pathum United a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making BG Pathum United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Port FC and BG Pathum United will score (BTTS).
Will Port FC vs BG Pathum United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and BG Pathum United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port FC and BG Pathum United in?
Port FC (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. BG Pathum United (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Port FC's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against BG Pathum United's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — BG Pathum United's attack (0.95x) against Port FC's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BG Pathum United Win
35%
2.82
28%
3.56
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Port FC xG
Total xG
2.34
1.18
BG Pathum United xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
11%
9.17
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port FC vs BG Pathum United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Port FC and BG Pathum United expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Port FC and 1.18 for BG Pathum United, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Port FC vs BG Pathum United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Port FC have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 6W 3D 4L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BG Pathum United's form line: 8W 2D 3L from 13 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L. The sample for BG Pathum United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Port FC against 2.00 for BG Pathum United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Port FC have posted 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (3W 0D 2L).
On the road, BG Pathum United have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port FC are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; BG Pathum United are on 1.23 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; BG Pathum United in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port FC
Blended
BG Pathum United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port FC and BG Pathum United in coming into this match?
Port FC have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 games (1.62 PPG), while BG Pathum United have gone 8W 2D 3L in their last 13 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port FC at home or BG Pathum United away?
Port FC's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port FC at home: 1.80 PPG; BG Pathum United away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Port FC or BG Pathum United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port FC have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, BG Pathum United in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against BG Pathum United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Port FC
1
Draws
6
BG Pathum United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port FC and BG Pathum United?
From 10 meetings on record, Port FC have won 3, BG Pathum United have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port FC and BG Pathum United last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Port FC 0-0 BG Pathum United.
Who has won more matches between Port FC and BG Pathum United?
BG Pathum United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port FC see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
BG Pathum United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port FC 20%, BG Pathum United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Port FC and 40% for BG Pathum United.
On the defensive side: Port FC keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; BG Pathum United in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port FC home games / BG Pathum United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port FC play BG Pathum United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Port FC's recent matches and 60% of BG Pathum United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port FC vs BG Pathum United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Port FC's recent games and 40% of BG Pathum United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port FC and BG Pathum United tend to score early?
Port FC have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, BG Pathum United in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Port FC defy the odds to beat BG Pathum United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat BG Pathum United 1-0 at PAT Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port FC 1.16 xG and BG Pathum United 1.18 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. BG Pathum United landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.07 against BG Pathum United attack 0.95 / defence 1.14, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port FC 35% | Draw 28% | BG Pathum United 36%, with BG Pathum United to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Port FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port FC 46%, BG Pathum United 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port FC's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
BG Pathum United's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port FC 1.62 PPG, BG Pathum United 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port FC win broke the near-deadlock. Port FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. BG Pathum United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.