Police Tero 3-2 Chiangrai United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Police Tero vs Chiangrai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Chiangrai United make the trip to Boonyachinda Stadium to face Police Tero in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 October 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Police Tero (all games): 2W 3D 4L across 9 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.44 goals per game and conceding 1.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Police Tero, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Police Tero at Boonyachinda Stadium this season: 1W 2D 0L from 3 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.67 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Police Tero are significantly better at Boonyachinda Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Chiangrai United have collected 1.89 PPG across 9 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.56 per game and conceding 1.11. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chiangrai United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chiangrai United away from home this season: 3W 0D 0L from 3 away games — 3.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 3.00 exceeds their overall 1.89 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Chiangrai United are 0.89 PPG clear of Police Tero in recent Thai League 1 fixtures (1.89 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Police Tero have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Chiangrai United in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Police Tero goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games.
Chiangrai United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Police Tero 56% versus Chiangrai United 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Police Tero 56% | Chiangrai United 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Police Tero 1.24 xG and Chiangrai United 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Police Tero attack 1.120 / defence 1.070 | Chiangrai United attack 1.174 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 1.315. Data: 9 Police Tero games / 9 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Police Tero 29% | Draw 24% | Chiangrai United 47%. Fair-value odds: Police Tero 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Chiangrai United 2.13. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chiangrai United are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Police Tero 67% | Chiangrai United 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Police Tero vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Boonyachinda Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Police Tero 29% | Draw 24% | Chiangrai United 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Police Tero 1.24 / Chiangrai United 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Police Tero attack 1.120 / def 1.070 | Chiangrai United attack 1.174 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.009 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Police Tero xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Chiangrai United xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Police Tero vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Police Tero vs Chiangrai United kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 October 2021 at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What was the final score in Police Tero vs Chiangrai United?
Police Tero 3 - 2 Chiangrai United.
Where is Police Tero vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Boonyachinda Stadium.
What competition is Police Tero vs Chiangrai United part of?
Police Tero vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Police Tero vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Police Tero a 29% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Police Tero vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Police Tero and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Police Tero vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Chiangrai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Police Tero and Chiangrai United in?
Police Tero (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.44 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 5W-2D-2L in 9 | 1.89 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 1.11 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Police Tero's attack rating (1.12) and Chiangrai United's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chiangrai United's attack (1.17x) against Police Tero's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.65.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
29%
3.48
24%
4.13
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Police Tero xG
Total xG
2.89
1.65
Chiangrai United xG
3.48
29%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
6%
18.13
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 9.2 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Police Tero vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Police Tero and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Police Tero and 1.65 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Police Tero vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Police Tero come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 3D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Police Tero is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Chiangrai United sit at 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Chiangrai United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chiangrai United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.89 PPG clear of Police Tero — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Police Tero's home form reads 1W 2D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Police Tero are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Chiangrai United have taken 3.00 points per game from 3 outings (3W 0D 0L). That's actually stronger than their 1.89 PPG overall record — Chiangrai United travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chiangrai United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Police Tero are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 1.56 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Police Tero
Blended
Chiangrai United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Police Tero and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Police Tero have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Police Tero at home or Chiangrai United away?
Chiangrai United's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Police Tero at home: 1.67 PPG; Chiangrai United away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Police Tero or Chiangrai United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Police Tero have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Chiangrai United in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Police Tero have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Chiangrai United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Police Tero
2
Draws
1
Chiangrai United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Police Tero and Chiangrai United?
From 6 meetings on record, Police Tero have won 3, Chiangrai United have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Police Tero and Chiangrai United last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2024, when Police Tero 0-0 Chiangrai United.
Who has won more matches between Police Tero and Chiangrai United?
Police Tero have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Police Tero are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Police Tero, 67% for Chiangrai United — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Police Tero) and 67% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Police Tero keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Chiangrai United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Police Tero home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Police Tero play Chiangrai United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Police Tero's games and 67% of Chiangrai United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Police Tero vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Police Tero's recent games and 67% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Police Tero and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Police Tero have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Police Tero defy the odds to beat Chiangrai United 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Police Tero beat Chiangrai United 3-2 at Boonyachinda Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Police Tero 1.24 xG and Chiangrai United 1.65 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Police Tero beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Police Tero attack 1.12 / defence 1.07 against Chiangrai United attack 1.17 / defence 1.10, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Police Tero 29% | Draw 24% | Chiangrai United 47%, with Chiangrai United to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Police Tero win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Police Tero 56%, Chiangrai United 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Police Tero's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Chiangrai United's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Chiangrai United arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Police Tero winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Police Tero (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chiangrai United (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.