Pattaya United 2-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pattaya United at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pattaya United vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pattaya United and Ratchaburi meet at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 October 2021 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pattaya United's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 3L from 9 games (1.11 PPG). Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.22 goals per game and conceding 1.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pattaya United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pattaya United at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ratchaburi (all games): 2W 3D 4L across 9 Thai League 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 1.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 1W 3D 2L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.11 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Pattaya United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games; Over 3.5 in 44%.
Ratchaburi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pattaya United 67% and Ratchaburi 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pattaya United 56% | Ratchaburi 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattaya United 1.36 xG and Ratchaburi 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattaya United attack 1.150 / defence 1.379 | Ratchaburi attack 0.725 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.033 / away 1.322. Data: 9 Pattaya United games / 9 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pattaya United 38% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 36%. Fair-value odds: Pattaya United 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Ratchaburi 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Pattaya United as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pattaya United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pattaya United 100% | Ratchaburi 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattaya United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattaya United 38% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Pattaya United 1.36 / Ratchaburi 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Pattaya United attack 1.150 / def 1.379 | Ratchaburi attack 0.725 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.033 / away 1.322 • Poisson stance: Pattaya United (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Pattaya United xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Ratchaburi xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattaya United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Pattaya United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium.
What was the final score in Pattaya United vs Ratchaburi?
Pattaya United 2 - 1 Ratchaburi.
Where is Pattaya United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium.
What competition is Pattaya United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Pattaya United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattaya United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Pattaya United a 38% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pattaya United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattaya United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Pattaya United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Pattaya United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattaya United and Ratchaburi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattaya United and Ratchaburi in?
Pattaya United (all comps): 2W-4D-3L in 9 | 1.11 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.22 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Pattaya United's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.36. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (0.72x) against Pattaya United's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pattaya United Win
38%
2.64
26%
3.86
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Pattaya United xG
Total xG
2.68
1.32
Ratchaburi xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
26%
3.89
Win to Nil
10%
9.90
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattaya United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Pattaya United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Pattaya United and 1.32 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattaya United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Pattaya United have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 2W 4D 3L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Pattaya United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi's form line: 2W 3D 4L from 9 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Pattaya United against 1.00 for Ratchaburi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Pattaya United have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pattaya United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pattaya United are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.11 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pattaya United have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 9 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattaya United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattaya United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Pattaya United have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pattaya United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Pattaya United's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pattaya United at home: 1.33 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Pattaya United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pattaya United have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Pattaya United
1
Draws
0
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pattaya United and Ratchaburi?
From 2 meetings on record, Pattaya United have won 1, Ratchaburi have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pattaya United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2022, when Ratchaburi 0-0 Pattaya United.
Who has won more matches between Pattaya United and Ratchaburi?
Pattaya United have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pattaya United see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Pattaya United, 100% for Ratchaburi — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Pattaya United and 67% for Ratchaburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattaya United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattaya United play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Pattaya United's games and 100% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pattaya United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Pattaya United's matches and 67% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Pattaya United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Pattaya United have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pattaya United edge out Ratchaburi 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pattaya United beat Ratchaburi 2-1 at Samut Prakarn SAT Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pattaya United 1.36 xG and Ratchaburi 1.32 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pattaya United attack 1.15 / defence 1.38 against Ratchaburi attack 0.72 / defence 1.14, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pattaya United 38% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 36%, with Pattaya United to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pattaya United 56%, Ratchaburi 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pattaya United's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pattaya United 1.11 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pattaya United win broke the near-deadlock. Pattaya United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.