Pattani vs Sisaket United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sisaket United at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pattani vs Sisaket United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Sisaket United travel to Rainbow Stadium to take on Pattani. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 May 2027, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Pattani stand at 1W 1D 3L from 5 Thai League 1 matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Pattani's home record at Rainbow Stadium: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Thai League 1 appearances (0.33 PPG).
Sisaket United — All Games: 2W 1D 2L from 5 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sisaket United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Sisaket United's 1.40 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Pattani's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Pattani trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Sisaket United trading profile (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pattani 40% versus Sisaket United 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pattani 60% | Sisaket United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.88 xG and Sisaket United 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.544 / defence 1.098 | Sisaket United attack 0.823 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.292. Pattani's attack strength of 0.544 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Pattani games / 5 Sisaket United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pattani 27% | Draw 32% | Sisaket United 41%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Sisaket United 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sisaket United as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sisaket United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pattani 0% | Sisaket United 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Sisaket United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 27% | Draw 32% | Sisaket United 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Pattani 0.88 / Sisaket United 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.544 / def 1.098 | Sisaket United attack 0.823 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Sisaket United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Sisaket United xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Sisaket United kick off?
Pattani vs Sisaket United is scheduled to kick off at 11:00 on Saturday 22 May 2027 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Sisaket United being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Sisaket United part of?
Pattani vs Sisaket United is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Sisaket United?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 27% chance of winning, Sisaket United a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sisaket United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Sisaket United?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Pattani and Sisaket United will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Sisaket United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Sisaket United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattani and Sisaket United in?
Pattani (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Sisaket United (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pattani's attack rating (0.54) and Sisaket United's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sisaket United's attack versus Pattani's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sisaket United Win
27%
3.76
32%
3.13
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.05
1.17
Sisaket United xG
3.76
27%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
8%
12.09
17%
5.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 15.1 | 8.8 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Sisaket United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Pattani and Sisaket United expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Pattani and 1.17 for Sisaket United, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Sisaket United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 5 outings, Pattani have picked up 0.80 PPG on a 1W 1D 3L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sisaket United's form line: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Sisaket United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Sisaket United are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Pattani.
The Goals Picture
Pattani are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Sisaket United are on 1.00 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sisaket United in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Sisaket United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Sisaket United in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Sisaket United have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Sisaket United see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pattani 40%, Sisaket United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Pattani) and 40% (Sisaket United).
On the defensive side: Pattani have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Sisaket United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Sisaket United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Pattani's recent matches and 60% of Sisaket United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pattani vs Sisaket United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Pattani's recent games and 40% of Sisaket United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pattani and Sisaket United tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sisaket United in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.