Pattani vs Chiangrai United – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Chiangrai United at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pattani vs Chiangrai United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 10 as Pattani welcome Chiangrai United to Rainbow Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 27 November 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Pattani have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pattani have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pattani have posted 0W 1D 2L at Rainbow Stadium — 0.33 PPG.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Chiangrai United stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Chiangrai United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chiangrai United's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Chiangrai United's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Pattani's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Pattani in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
Chiangrai United in-play and half-time data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pattani 40% versus Chiangrai United 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pattani 60% | Chiangrai United 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pattani 0.79 xG and Chiangrai United 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pattani attack 0.544 / defence 1.098 | Chiangrai United attack 0.963 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.292. Pattani's attack strength of 0.544 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 5 Pattani games / 35 Chiangrai United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pattani 21% | Draw 30% | Chiangrai United 49%. Fair-value odds: Pattani 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Chiangrai United 2.04. Chiangrai United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Chiangrai United at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Chiangrai United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pattani 0% | Chiangrai United 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pattani vs Chiangrai United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Rainbow Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 27 Nov 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pattani 21% | Draw 30% | Chiangrai United 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Pattani 0.79 / Chiangrai United 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Pattani attack 0.544 / def 1.098 | Chiangrai United attack 0.963 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Chiangrai United (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Pattani xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Chiangrai United xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pattani vs Chiangrai United kick off?
Pattani vs Chiangrai United is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 on Friday 27 November 2026 at Rainbow Stadium.
Where is Pattani vs Chiangrai United being played?
The match is being played at Rainbow Stadium.
What competition is Pattani vs Chiangrai United part of?
Pattani vs Chiangrai United is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Pattani vs Chiangrai United?
Our statistical model gives Pattani a 21% chance of winning, Chiangrai United a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Chiangrai United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pattani vs Chiangrai United?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Pattani and Chiangrai United will score (BTTS).
Will Pattani vs Chiangrai United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pattani and Chiangrai United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pattani and Chiangrai United in?
Pattani (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Chiangrai United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Pattani's attack rating (0.54) and Chiangrai United's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 0.79 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Chiangrai United's attack versus Pattani's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chiangrai United Win
21%
4.80
30%
3.36
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Pattani xG
Total xG
2.16
1.37
Chiangrai United xG
4.80
21%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
45%
2.21
Win to Nil
5%
18.83
22%
4.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 15.8 | 10.8 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pattani vs Chiangrai United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Pattani and Chiangrai United expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Pattani and 1.37 for Chiangrai United, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Pattani vs Chiangrai United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pattani's recent record stands at 1W 1D 3L from 5 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pattani, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Chiangrai United, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 3L across 5 games — 0.80 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Chiangrai United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pattani on 0.80 PPG, Chiangrai United on 0.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Pattani are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Chiangrai United are on 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Chiangrai United in 60%.
Last 5 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pattani
Early Season
Chiangrai United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pattani and Chiangrai United in coming into this match?
Pattani have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Chiangrai United have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pattani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Chiangrai United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pattani 40%, Chiangrai United 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Pattani) and 40% (Chiangrai United).
On the defensive side: Pattani have failed to score in 60% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pattani home games / Chiangrai United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pattani play Chiangrai United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Pattani's recent matches and 60% of Chiangrai United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pattani vs Chiangrai United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Pattani's recent games and 40% of Chiangrai United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pattani and Chiangrai United tend to score early?
Pattani have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Chiangrai United in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.