Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nong Bua Pitchaya at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Sukhothai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Sukhothai FC travel to Pitchaya Stadium to take on Nong Bua Pitchaya. The game is scheduled for Saturday 29 March 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nong Bua Pitchaya — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Nong Bua Pitchaya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record at Pitchaya Stadium: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sukhothai FC stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sukhothai FC's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nong Bua Pitchaya at 0.80 PPG versus Sukhothai FC's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, Sukhothai FC 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2024, ended 2–5 with Sukhothai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nong Bua Pitchaya trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Sukhothai FC trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nong Bua Pitchaya 62% and Sukhothai FC 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 58% | Sukhothai FC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.45 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.811 / defence 1.061 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.810 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.634 / away 1.177. Data: 26 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 56 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 47% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Sukhothai FC 3.85. Nong Bua Pitchaya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nong Bua Pitchaya are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nong Bua Pitchaya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.46 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Nong Bua Pitchaya 70% | Sukhothai FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 47% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.45 / Sukhothai FC 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.811 / def 1.061 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.810 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.634 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Nong Bua Pitchaya (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Sukhothai FC xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Sukhothai FC?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1 - 1 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 47% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Nong Bua Pitchaya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Sukhothai FC?
Record (3 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W | Draws 2 | Sukhothai FC 1W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Sukhothai FC in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack rating (0.81) and Sukhothai FC's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nong Bua Pitchaya Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.75
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.46
1.01
Sukhothai FC xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
17%
5.84
6%
16.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.01 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Sukhothai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 26 outings, Nong Bua Pitchaya have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 8D 12L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nong Bua Pitchaya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sukhothai FC's form line: 9W 6D 11L from 26 games, 1.27 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W. The sample for Sukhothai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nong Bua Pitchaya on 1.00 PPG, Sukhothai FC on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nong Bua Pitchaya have posted 1.54 PPG from 13 outings (5W 5D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sukhothai FC have gone 1W 5D 7L from 13 away games — 0.62 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nong Bua Pitchaya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.46 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nong Bua Pitchaya have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Sukhothai FC in 62%.
Last 26 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Blended
Sukhothai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 6W 8D 12L in their last 26 games (1.00 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 9W 6D 11L in their last 26 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 1.54 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Nov 2024, when Sukhothai FC won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
3
Draws
1
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Sukhothai FC?
From 4 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, Sukhothai FC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-1 Sukhothai FC.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Sukhothai FC?
Sukhothai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 62%, Sukhothai FC 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 54% (Sukhothai FC).
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 31% of games; Sukhothai FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's games and 62% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 54% of Sukhothai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 92% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nong Bua Pitchaya and Sukhothai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 27, as Nong Bua Pitchaya and Sukhothai FC drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.45 xG and Sukhothai FC 1.01 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.81 / defence 1.06 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.09, drawn from 26/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 47% | Draw 27% | Sukhothai FC 26%, with Nong Bua Pitchaya to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 58%, Sukhothai FC 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.00 PPG, Sukhothai FC 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.