Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2 Port FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Port FC (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nong Bua Pitchaya face Port FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nong Bua Pitchaya host Port FC at Pitchaya Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 April 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nong Bua Pitchaya — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record at Pitchaya Stadium: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Nong Bua Pitchaya are significantly better at Pitchaya Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Port FC have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Port FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Port FC are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Nong Bua Pitchaya register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Port FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Port FC, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Nong Bua Pitchaya.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with Port FC winning.
It is worth noting that Port FC have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Nong Bua Pitchaya in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Port FC in-play and half-time data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nong Bua Pitchaya 64% and Port FC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nong Bua Pitchaya 57% | Port FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.29 xG and Port FC 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.784 / defence 1.035 | Port FC attack 1.074 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.691 / away 1.274. Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack strength of 0.784 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Nong Bua Pitchaya games / 58 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 34% | Draw 27% | Port FC 39%. Fair-value odds: Nong Bua Pitchaya 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Port FC 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port FC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nong Bua Pitchaya 70% | Port FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Pitchaya Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nong Bua Pitchaya 34% | Draw 27% | Port FC 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.29 / Port FC 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.784 / def 1.035 | Port FC attack 1.074 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.691 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Port FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Port FC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC kick off?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at Pitchaya Stadium.
What was the final score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC?
Nong Bua Pitchaya 1 - 2 Port FC.
Where is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Pitchaya Stadium.
What competition is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC part of?
Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Nong Bua Pitchaya a 34% chance of winning, Port FC a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Port FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC?
Record (5 meetings): Nong Bua Pitchaya 0W | Draws 1 | Port FC 4W.
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC in?
Nong Bua Pitchaya (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Port FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nong Bua Pitchaya's attack rating (0.78) and Port FC's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Nong Bua Pitchaya's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port FC Win
34%
2.97
27%
3.68
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Nong Bua Pitchaya xG
Total xG
2.71
1.42
Port FC xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
8%
12.25
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.2 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Nong Bua Pitchaya and 1.42 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent record stands at 6W 9D 13L from 28 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 8L across 28 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Port FC by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nong Bua Pitchaya heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nong Bua Pitchaya have managed 5W 6D 3L from 14 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.96 PPG overall — Nong Bua Pitchaya are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Port FC's away record stands at 5W 4D 5L across 14 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Nong Bua Pitchaya are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.64 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nong Bua Pitchaya have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Port FC in 68%.
Last 28 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nong Bua Pitchaya
Current Season
Port FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC in coming into this match?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have gone 6W 9D 13L in their last 28 games (0.96 PPG), while Port FC have gone 11W 9D 8L in their last 28 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home or Port FC away?
Nong Bua Pitchaya's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nong Bua Pitchaya at home: 1.50 PPG; Port FC away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Port FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2022, when Port FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nong Bua Pitchaya's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Nong Bua Pitchaya
1
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Nong Bua Pitchaya have won 0, Port FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nong Bua Pitchaya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nong Bua Pitchaya 64%, Port FC 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Nong Bua Pitchaya) and 57% (Port FC).
On the defensive side: Nong Bua Pitchaya have failed to score in 29% of games; Port FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nong Bua Pitchaya home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nong Bua Pitchaya play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's games and 64% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nong Bua Pitchaya vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Nong Bua Pitchaya's recent games and 57% of Port FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nong Bua Pitchaya and Port FC tend to score early?
Nong Bua Pitchaya have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Port FC in 93% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port FC edge out Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port FC beat Nong Bua Pitchaya 1-2 at Pitchaya Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nong Bua Pitchaya 1.29 xG and Port FC 1.42 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nong Bua Pitchaya attack 0.78 / defence 1.03 against Port FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.98, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nong Bua Pitchaya 34% | Draw 27% | Port FC 39%, with Port FC to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nong Bua Pitchaya 57%, Port FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nong Bua Pitchaya's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Port FC arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.