Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-1 Lamphun Warrior – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 51%, yet in-form Lamphun Warrior provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nakhon Ratchasima FC host Lamphun Warrior at 80th Birthday Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 February 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nakhon Ratchasima FC — All Games: 1W 0D 9L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 0.30 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 80th Birthday Stadium this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are significantly better at 80th Birthday Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Lamphun Warrior — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 0, Lamphun Warrior 1, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lamphun Warrior in-play tendencies (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 55% versus Lamphun Warrior 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51% | Lamphun Warrior 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.52 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.803 / defence 0.962 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.919 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.054. Data: 47 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 48 Lamphun Warrior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51% | Draw 26% | Lamphun Warrior 23%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Lamphun Warrior 4.35. Nakhon Ratchasima FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nakhon Ratchasima FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Lamphun Warrior (0.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40% | Lamphun Warrior 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: 80th Birthday Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Feb 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51% | Draw 26% | Lamphun Warrior 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.52 / Lamphun Warrior 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.803 / def 0.962 | Lamphun Warrior attack 0.919 / def 1.178 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.054 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Lamphun Warrior xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 1 February 2026 at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0 - 1 Lamphun Warrior.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior being played?
The match is being played at 80th Birthday Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 51% chance of winning, Lamphun Warrior a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Record (5 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W | Draws 4 | Lamphun Warrior 1W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attack rating (0.80) and Lamphun Warrior's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lamphun Warrior's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
51%
1.96
26%
3.86
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.45
0.93
Lamphun Warrior xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
5%
19.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.2 | 5.7 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0.93 for Lamphun Warrior, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent record stands at 9W 15D 23L from 47 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamphun Warrior, meanwhile, have gone 10W 19D 18L across 47 games — 1.04 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 0.89 PPG, Lamphun Warrior on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have managed 6W 8D 8L from 22 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lamphun Warrior's away record stands at 3W 8D 11L across 22 trips, a 0.77 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Lamphun Warrior are on 1.28 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 9W 15D 23L in their last 47 games (0.89 PPG), while Lamphun Warrior have gone 10W 19D 18L in their last 47 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Lamphun Warrior away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.18 PPG; Lamphun Warrior away: 0.77 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2025, when Lamphun Warrior won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Lamphun Warrior specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
4
Draws
2
Lamphun Warrior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior?
From 6 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 0, Lamphun Warrior have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-1 Lamphun Warrior.
Who has won more matches between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior?
Lamphun Warrior have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nakhon Ratchasima FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 64%, Lamphun Warrior 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 50% (Lamphun Warrior).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 27% of games; Lamphun Warrior in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Lamphun Warrior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Lamphun Warrior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's games and 59% of Lamphun Warrior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Lamphun Warrior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 50% of Lamphun Warrior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Lamphun Warrior tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Lamphun Warrior in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lamphun Warrior defy the odds to beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lamphun Warrior beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0-1 at 80th Birthday Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.52 xG and Lamphun Warrior 0.93 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nakhon Ratchasima FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.80 / defence 0.96 against Lamphun Warrior attack 0.92 / defence 1.18, drawn from 47/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51% | Draw 26% | Lamphun Warrior 23%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Lamphun Warrior win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 51%, Lamphun Warrior 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0.89 PPG, Lamphun Warrior 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lamphun Warrior win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.77 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.