Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-2 Khon Kaen United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Khon Kaen United travel to His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium to take on Nakhon Ratchasima FC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 February 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nakhon Ratchasima FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Nakhon Ratchasima FC are significantly better at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Khon Kaen United — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Khon Kaen United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Khon Kaen United have gone 3W 0D 6L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 1.20 PPG versus Khon Kaen United's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Nakhon Ratchasima FC, 0 for Khon Kaen United and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Nakhon Ratchasima FC in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Khon Kaen United in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 50% versus Khon Kaen United 35%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40% | Khon Kaen United 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.34 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.980 / defence 1.155 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.782 / defence 1.346. League average goals — home 1.013 / away 1.061. Khon Kaen United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.346 — this is suppressing Nakhon Ratchasima FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Nakhon Ratchasima FC games / 20 Khon Kaen United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 45% | Draw 28% | Khon Kaen United 27%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2.22 | Draw 3.57 | Khon Kaen United 3.70. Nakhon Ratchasima FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Ratchasima FC as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nakhon Ratchasima FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40% | Khon Kaen United 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Feb 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 45% | Draw 28% | Khon Kaen United 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.34 / Khon Kaen United 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.980 / def 1.155 | Khon Kaen United attack 0.782 / def 1.346 | league avg home 1.013 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Ratchasima FC (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Khon Kaen United xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United kick off?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 12 February 2022 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1 - 2 Khon Kaen United.
Where is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United being played?
The match is being played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United part of?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Ratchasima FC a 45% chance of winning, Khon Kaen United a 27% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Ratchasima FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Khon Kaen United will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Khon Kaen United?
Record (1 meetings): Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0W | Draws 1 | Khon Kaen United 0W.
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Khon Kaen United in?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Khon Kaen United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Khon Kaen United's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Khon Kaen United's attack versus Nakhon Ratchasima FC's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Ratchasima FC Win
45%
2.20
28%
3.60
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Nakhon Ratchasima FC xG
Total xG
2.29
0.96
Khon Kaen United xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
7%
14.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 12.9 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Khon Kaen United expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Nakhon Ratchasima FC and 0.96 for Khon Kaen United, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent record stands at 7W 5D 8L from 20 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Nakhon Ratchasima FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khon Kaen United, meanwhile, have gone 7W 4D 9L across 20 games — 1.25 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Khon Kaen United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nakhon Ratchasima FC on 1.30 PPG, Khon Kaen United on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have managed 4W 3D 2L from 9 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khon Kaen United's away record stands at 3W 0D 6L across 9 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Ratchasima FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Khon Kaen United are on 0.95 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 20 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Blended
Khon Kaen United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Khon Kaen United in coming into this match?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have gone 7W 5D 8L in their last 20 games (1.30 PPG), while Khon Kaen United have gone 7W 4D 9L in their last 20 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home or Khon Kaen United away?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home: 1.67 PPG; Khon Kaen United away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Khon Kaen United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Khon Kaen United in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Khon Kaen United runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's record when hosting Khon Kaen United specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
2
Draws
2
Khon Kaen United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Khon Kaen United?
From 6 meetings on record, Nakhon Ratchasima FC have won 2, Khon Kaen United have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Khon Kaen United last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3-1 Khon Kaen United.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nakhon Ratchasima FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Khon Kaen United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 44%, Khon Kaen United 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Nakhon Ratchasima FC) and 44% (Khon Kaen United).
On the defensive side: Nakhon Ratchasima FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Nakhon Ratchasima FC have failed to score in 33% of games; Khon Kaen United in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Ratchasima FC home games / Khon Kaen United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Ratchasima FC play Khon Kaen United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent matches and 33% of Khon Kaen United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Khon Kaen United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Nakhon Ratchasima FC's recent games and 44% of Khon Kaen United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Khon Kaen United tend to score early?
Nakhon Ratchasima FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Khon Kaen United in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Khon Kaen United defy the odds to beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Khon Kaen United beat Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1-2 at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.34 xG and Khon Kaen United 0.96 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Khon Kaen United outscored their 0.96 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 0.98 / defence 1.16 against Khon Kaen United attack 0.78 / defence 1.35, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Ratchasima FC 45% | Draw 28% | Khon Kaen United 27%, with Nakhon Ratchasima FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Khon Kaen United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Ratchasima FC 40%, Khon Kaen United 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Ratchasima FC's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Khon Kaen United's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1.30 PPG, Khon Kaen United 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Khon Kaen United win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Ratchasima FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Khon Kaen United (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.