Nakhon Pathom 0-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nakhon Pathom at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ratchaburi make the trip to Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium to face Nakhon Pathom in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nakhon Pathom have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Nakhon Pathom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nakhon Pathom's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 2L across 7 games at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium this term (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Ratchaburi have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Nakhon Pathom, 1.20 for Ratchaburi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nakhon Pathom lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 1–0 with Nakhon Pathom winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Nakhon Pathom half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nakhon Pathom 80% and Ratchaburi 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Nakhon Pathom 73% | Ratchaburi 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nakhon Pathom 1.42 xG and Ratchaburi 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.910 / defence 1.158 | Ratchaburi attack 0.754 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.656 / away 1.301. Data: 15 Nakhon Pathom games / 45 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 42% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 28%. Fair-value odds: Nakhon Pathom 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Ratchaburi 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nakhon Pathom as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nakhon Pathom if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nakhon Pathom 86% | Ratchaburi 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nakhon Pathom 42% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 53% | xG Nakhon Pathom 1.42 / Ratchaburi 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Nakhon Pathom attack 0.910 / def 1.158 | Ratchaburi attack 0.754 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.656 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Nakhon Pathom (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Nakhon Pathom xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Ratchaburi xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What was the final score in Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi?
Nakhon Pathom 0 - 1 Ratchaburi.
Where is Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium.
What competition is Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi part of?
Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Nakhon Pathom a 42% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Nakhon Pathom the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Nakhon Pathom and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Ratchaburi?
Record (1 meetings): Nakhon Pathom 1W | Draws 0 | Ratchaburi 0W.
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Ratchaburi in?
Nakhon Pathom (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Nakhon Pathom's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Ratchaburi's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (0.75x) against Nakhon Pathom's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 15/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nakhon Pathom Win
42%
2.39
30%
3.35
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Nakhon Pathom xG
Total xG
2.56
1.14
Ratchaburi xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
7%
14.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Nakhon Pathom and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Nakhon Pathom and 1.14 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Nakhon Pathom's recent record stands at 5W 4D 6L from 15 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Nakhon Pathom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 7L across 15 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Nakhon Pathom against 1.07 for Ratchaburi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Nakhon Pathom have managed 3W 2D 2L from 7 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ratchaburi's away record stands at 0W 3D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.43 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.07 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nakhon Pathom come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nakhon Pathom are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.47 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nakhon Pathom have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; Ratchaburi in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nakhon Pathom
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nakhon Pathom and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Nakhon Pathom have gone 5W 4D 6L in their last 15 games (1.27 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 4W 4D 7L in their last 15 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nakhon Pathom at home or Ratchaburi away?
Nakhon Pathom's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nakhon Pathom at home: 1.57 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ratchaburi won 1-6 on 30 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nakhon Pathom have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Nakhon Pathom
0
Draws
2
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nakhon Pathom and Ratchaburi?
From 4 meetings on record, Nakhon Pathom have won 2, Ratchaburi have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nakhon Pathom and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 30 April 2025, when Nakhon Pathom 1-6 Ratchaburi.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nakhon Pathom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ratchaburi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for Nakhon Pathom, 57% for Ratchaburi — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Nakhon Pathom and 43% for Ratchaburi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nakhon Pathom home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nakhon Pathom play Ratchaburi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Nakhon Pathom's games and 57% of Ratchaburi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nakhon Pathom vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Nakhon Pathom's matches and 43% of Ratchaburi's.
Do Nakhon Pathom and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Nakhon Pathom have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ratchaburi defy the odds to beat Nakhon Pathom 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ratchaburi beat Nakhon Pathom 0-1 at Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nakhon Pathom 1.42 xG and Ratchaburi 1.14 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nakhon Pathom fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nakhon Pathom attack 0.91 / defence 1.16 against Ratchaburi attack 0.75 / defence 0.94, drawn from 15/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nakhon Pathom 42% | Draw 30% | Ratchaburi 28%, with Nakhon Pathom to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Ratchaburi win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nakhon Pathom 73%, Ratchaburi 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nakhon Pathom's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did not.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nakhon Pathom 1.27 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ratchaburi win broke the near-deadlock. Nakhon Pathom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.