Muangthong United 4-2 Sukhothai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Muangthong United (73%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Muangthong United face Sukhothai FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Sukhothai FC travel to Thunder Dome Stadium to take on Muangthong United. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Muangthong United — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Muangthong United have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Muangthong United have posted 10W 0D 0L at Thunder Dome Stadium — 3.00 PPG. They are averaging 3.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thunder Dome Stadium. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Muangthong United are significantly better at Thunder Dome Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Sukhothai FC have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sukhothai FC have played only a handful of Thai League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sukhothai FC away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Muangthong United are in the better shape of the two on current Thai League 1 data — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Muangthong United, 1 for Sukhothai FC and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 5–0 with Muangthong United winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Muangthong United in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Sukhothai FC in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Muangthong United 66% and Sukhothai FC 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Muangthong United 69% | Sukhothai FC 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 2.57 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.186 / defence 0.709 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.908 / defence 1.288. League average goals — home 1.682 / away 1.243. Sukhothai FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.288 — this is suppressing Muangthong United's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Muangthong United's defence rating of 0.709 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 35 Muangthong United games / 35 Sukhothai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 73% | Draw 19% | Sukhothai FC 7%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 1.37 | Draw 5.26 | Sukhothai FC 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Muangthong United (73%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 3.37. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.37 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Muangthong United are the pick at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.37 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Muangthong United 40% | Sukhothai FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Sukhothai FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 73% | Draw 19% | Sukhothai FC 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 53% | xG Muangthong United 2.57 / Sukhothai FC 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.186 / def 0.709 | Sukhothai FC attack 0.908 / def 1.288 | league avg home 1.682 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.57
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Sukhothai FC xG
53%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Sukhothai FC kick off?
Muangthong United vs Sukhothai FC kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Sukhothai FC?
Muangthong United 4 - 2 Sukhothai FC.
Where is Muangthong United vs Sukhothai FC being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Sukhothai FC part of?
Muangthong United vs Sukhothai FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 73% chance of winning, Sukhothai FC a 7% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Muangthong United and Sukhothai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Sukhothai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Sukhothai FC?
Record (4 meetings): Muangthong United 3W | Draws 0 | Sukhothai FC 1W.
What form are Muangthong United and Sukhothai FC in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Sukhothai FC (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Muangthong United's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Sukhothai FC's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.57. The same calculation in reverse, Sukhothai FC's attack versus Muangthong United's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
73%
1.36
19%
5.17
7%
13.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.57
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
3.37
0.80
Sukhothai FC xG
1.36
73%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
13.76
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
8%
13.07
Win to Nil
33%
3.03
1%
179.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Sukhothai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Sukhothai FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.57 expected goals for Muangthong United and 0.80 for Sukhothai FC, a combined total of 3.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Sukhothai FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Muangthong United come into this having played 35 games, going 18W 6D 11L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Muangthong United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sukhothai FC sit at 1.03 PPG from 35 outings (10W 6D 19L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sukhothai FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Muangthong United carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of Sukhothai FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Muangthong United's home form reads 12W 2D 3L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.24 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Muangthong United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Sukhothai FC have taken 0.59 points per game from 17 outings (2W 4D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sukhothai FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Muangthong United are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Sukhothai FC are on 1.17 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Sukhothai FC in 63%.
Last 35 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Early Season
Sukhothai FC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Sukhothai FC in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 18W 6D 11L in their last 35 games (1.71 PPG), while Sukhothai FC have gone 10W 6D 19L in their last 35 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Sukhothai FC away?
Muangthong United's home record (2.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 2.24 PPG; Sukhothai FC away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Muangthong United or Sukhothai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sukhothai FC in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Muangthong United and Sukhothai FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2024, when Muangthong United won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Muangthong United's record when hosting Sukhothai FC specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Muangthong United
0
Draws
2
Sukhothai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Sukhothai FC?
From 8 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 6, Sukhothai FC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Sukhothai FC last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Sukhothai FC 3-0 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Sukhothai FC?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Sukhothai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 53%, Sukhothai FC 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Muangthong United and 76% for Sukhothai FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Muangthong United keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Sukhothai FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Sukhothai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Sukhothai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Muangthong United's games and 71% of Sukhothai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Muangthong United vs Sukhothai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Muangthong United's matches and 76% of Sukhothai FC's.
Do Muangthong United and Sukhothai FC tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Sukhothai FC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Muangthong United cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Sukhothai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Sukhothai FC 4-2 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 2.57 xG and Sukhothai FC 0.80 xG, a combined 3.37. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Muangthong United beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sukhothai FC outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.19 / defence 0.71 against Sukhothai FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.29, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 73% | Draw 19% | Sukhothai FC 7%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 73%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 69%, Sukhothai FC 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sukhothai FC's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Muangthong United arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.03. That form edge translated into the three points. Muangthong United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sukhothai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.