Muangthong United 4-0 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Muangthong United at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Thunder Dome Stadium plays host to Muangthong United versus Ratchaburi in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Muangthong United have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 8W 0D 2L. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Thunder Dome Stadium, Muangthong United have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thunder Dome Stadium.
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in Muangthong United's favour (2.40 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Muangthong United 2W, Ratchaburi 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2022, ended 0–1 with Ratchaburi winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Muangthong United half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Muangthong United 61% versus Ratchaburi 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 52% | Ratchaburi 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.64 xG and Ratchaburi 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.159 / defence 0.937 | Ratchaburi attack 0.847 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.211. Data: 59 Muangthong United games / 59 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 53% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 22%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Ratchaburi 4.55. Muangthong United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Muangthong United as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Muangthong United if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Muangthong United 50% | Ratchaburi 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 12 May 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 53% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Muangthong United 1.64 / Ratchaburi 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.159 / def 0.937 | Ratchaburi attack 0.847 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Ratchaburi xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 12:00 on Friday 12 May 2023 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi?
Muangthong United 4 - 0 Ratchaburi.
Where is Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 53% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Muangthong United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Ratchaburi?
Record (3 meetings): Muangthong United 2W | Draws 0 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Muangthong United and Ratchaburi in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Ratchaburi (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Muangthong United's attack rating (1.16) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (0.85x) against Muangthong United's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.86
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
2.60
0.96
Ratchaburi xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
4%
23.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Muangthong United and 0.96 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 59 outings, Muangthong United have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 26W 18D 15L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Ratchaburi's form line: 19W 20D 20L from 59 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Muangthong United against 1.31 for Ratchaburi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Muangthong United have posted 2.14 PPG from 29 outings (18W 8D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Muangthong United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 7W 8D 14L from 29 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Muangthong United are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.08 scored and 1.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Current Season
Ratchaburi
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 26W 18D 15L in their last 59 games (1.63 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 19W 20D 20L in their last 59 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Muangthong United's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 2.14 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Ratchaburi go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Muangthong United won 4-0 on 12 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Muangthong United have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Muangthong United
1
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 5, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 3-2 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Ratchaburi?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 69%, Ratchaburi 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Muangthong United) and 28% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Ratchaburi in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 69% of Muangthong United's recent matches and 38% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Muangthong United's recent games and 28% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Muangthong United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Muangthong United run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Ratchaburi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Ratchaburi 4-0 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.64 xG and Ratchaburi 0.96 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Muangthong United beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ratchaburi landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.16 / defence 0.94 against Ratchaburi attack 0.85 / defence 0.89, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 53% | Draw 26% | Ratchaburi 22%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 52%, Ratchaburi 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.63 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Muangthong United win broke the near-deadlock. Muangthong United (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Ratchaburi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.