Muangthong United 1-1 Ratchaburi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Muangthong United at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Thunder Dome Stadium plays host to Muangthong United versus Ratchaburi in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 16 December 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Muangthong United have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Thai League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Thunder Dome Stadium, Muangthong United have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ratchaburi's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Ratchaburi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ratchaburi away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Muangthong United, 1.40 for Ratchaburi — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Muangthong United 3W, Ratchaburi 1W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2023, ended 4–0 with Muangthong United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Muangthong United half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Ratchaburi half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Muangthong United 58% versus Ratchaburi 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 60% | Ratchaburi 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.59 xG and Ratchaburi 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.081 / defence 1.111 | Ratchaburi attack 0.804 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.286. Data: 43 Muangthong United games / 43 Ratchaburi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 47% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 26%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Ratchaburi 3.85. Muangthong United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Muangthong United as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Muangthong United if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Muangthong United 60% | Ratchaburi 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 47% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Muangthong United 1.59 / Ratchaburi 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.081 / def 1.111 | Ratchaburi attack 0.804 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Ratchaburi xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi kick off?
Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi?
Muangthong United 1 - 1 Ratchaburi.
Where is Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi part of?
Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 47% chance of winning, Ratchaburi a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Muangthong United and Ratchaburi will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Ratchaburi?
Record (4 meetings): Muangthong United 3W | Draws 0 | Ratchaburi 1W.
What form are Muangthong United and Ratchaburi in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Ratchaburi (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Muangthong United's attack rating (1.08) and Ratchaburi's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ratchaburi's attack (0.80x) against Muangthong United's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
47%
2.15
27%
3.70
26%
3.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
2.74
1.15
Ratchaburi xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.78
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
15%
6.77
5%
18.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.8 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Ratchaburi expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.15 for Ratchaburi, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Muangthong United have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 19W 10D 14L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ratchaburi's form line: 14W 14D 15L from 43 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Ratchaburi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Muangthong United against 1.30 for Ratchaburi. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Muangthong United have posted 1.84 PPG from 19 outings (10W 5D 4L).
On the road, Ratchaburi have gone 3W 6D 10L from 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.30 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ratchaburi's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Muangthong United are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Ratchaburi are on 1.23 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Blended
Ratchaburi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Ratchaburi in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 19W 10D 14L in their last 43 games (1.56 PPG), while Ratchaburi have gone 14W 14D 15L in their last 43 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Ratchaburi away?
Muangthong United's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 1.84 PPG; Ratchaburi away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Muangthong United or Ratchaburi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ratchaburi in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Ratchaburi go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Muangthong United won 4-0 on 12 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Muangthong United have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ratchaburi — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Muangthong United
1
Draws
4
Ratchaburi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Ratchaburi?
From 10 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 5, Ratchaburi have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Ratchaburi last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when Ratchaburi 3-2 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Ratchaburi?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Ratchaburi see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 53%, Ratchaburi 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Muangthong United) and 37% (Ratchaburi).
On the defensive side: Muangthong United keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Ratchaburi in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Ratchaburi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Ratchaburi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Muangthong United's recent matches and 47% of Ratchaburi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Muangthong United vs Ratchaburi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Muangthong United's recent games and 37% of Ratchaburi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Muangthong United and Ratchaburi tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Ratchaburi in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Muangthong United and Ratchaburi share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Muangthong United and Ratchaburi drew 1-1 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.59 xG and Ratchaburi 1.15 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.08 / defence 1.11 against Ratchaburi attack 0.80 / defence 0.90, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 47% | Draw 27% | Ratchaburi 26%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 60%, Ratchaburi 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (43 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Ratchaburi's trading profile (43 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.56 PPG, Ratchaburi 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Muangthong United (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.