Muangthong United 1-4 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Muangthong United at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Muangthong United vs Prachuap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Muangthong United host Prachuap at Thunderdome Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 November 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Muangthong United — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United's home record at Thunderdome Stadium: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Thunderdome Stadium. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Muangthong United are significantly better at Thunderdome Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Muangthong United at 1.30 PPG versus Prachuap's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Muangthong United hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 8 previous encounters compared to 2 for Prachuap, with 1 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 0–5 with Prachuap winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Muangthong United and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Muangthong United trading profile (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Prachuap trading profile (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Muangthong United 56% versus Prachuap 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 49% | Prachuap 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.26 xG and Prachuap 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 0.838 / defence 0.889 | Prachuap attack 0.917 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.135. Data: 39 Muangthong United games / 39 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 42% | Draw 34% | Prachuap 25%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Prachuap 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Muangthong United at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Muangthong United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. This conflicts with form data: Muangthong United 50% | Prachuap 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Thunderdome Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 42% | Draw 34% | Prachuap 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Muangthong United 1.26 / Prachuap 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 0.838 / def 0.889 | Prachuap attack 0.917 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Prachuap xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Prachuap kick off?
Muangthong United vs Prachuap kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Thunderdome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Muangthong United 1 - 4 Prachuap.
Where is Muangthong United vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Thunderdome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Prachuap part of?
Muangthong United vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 42% chance of winning, Prachuap a 25% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Muangthong United and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Prachuap?
Record (8 meetings): Muangthong United 5W | Draws 1 | Prachuap 2W.
What form are Muangthong United and Prachuap in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Prachuap (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Muangthong United's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Muangthong United's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
42%
2.41
34%
2.98
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
2.18
0.93
Prachuap xG
2.41
42%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
7%
14.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.1 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Muangthong United and 0.93 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Muangthong United have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 15W 10D 14L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap's form line: 15W 12D 12L from 39 games, 1.46 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Muangthong United on 1.41 PPG, Prachuap on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Muangthong United have posted 2.05 PPG from 19 outings (12W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.41 PPG overall — Muangthong United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Prachuap have gone 3W 6D 10L from 19 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Muangthong United are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.51 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Prachuap in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 15W 10D 14L in their last 39 games (1.41 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 15W 12D 12L in their last 39 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Prachuap away?
Muangthong United's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 2.05 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Muangthong United or Prachuap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Prachuap in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Muangthong United and Prachuap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Prachuap go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2022, when Muangthong United won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Muangthong United's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Muangthong United
1
Draws
4
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Prachuap?
From 10 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 5, Prachuap have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Prachuap 2-1 Muangthong United.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Prachuap?
Muangthong United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Muangthong United see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Muangthong United 47%, Prachuap 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Muangthong United) and 37% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Muangthong United keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Prachuap in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Prachuap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Muangthong United's recent matches and 58% of Prachuap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Muangthong United vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Muangthong United's recent games and 37% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Muangthong United and Prachuap tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Prachuap run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Muangthong United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Prachuap beat Muangthong United 1-4 at Thunderdome Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Thai League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.26 xG and Prachuap 0.93 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Prachuap outscored their 0.93 projection by 3.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 0.84 / defence 0.89 against Prachuap attack 0.92 / defence 0.96, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 42% | Draw 34% | Prachuap 25%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Prachuap win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 49%, Prachuap 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Prachuap's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.41 PPG, Prachuap 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Prachuap win broke the near-deadlock. Muangthong United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Prachuap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.