Muangthong United 2-1 Port FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Muangthong United at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Muangthong United vs Port FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Thai League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Muangthong United welcome Port FC to Thunder Dome Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Muangthong United have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Muangthong United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Muangthong United at Thunder Dome Stadium this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Muangthong United are significantly better at Thunder Dome Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Port FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Port FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port FC away from home this season: 3W 3D 3L from 9 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.56 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Muangthong United) versus 1.70 (Port FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Muangthong United, 1 for Port FC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Port FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Muangthong United in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Port FC in-play tendencies (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Muangthong United 61% versus Port FC 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Muangthong United 50% | Port FC 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Muangthong United 1.47 xG and Port FC 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Muangthong United attack 1.218 / defence 1.169 | Port FC attack 1.003 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.006 / away 1.124. Data: 19 Muangthong United games / 18 Port FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Muangthong United 41% | Draw 25% | Port FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Muangthong United 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Port FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Muangthong United are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Muangthong United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Muangthong United 80% | Port FC 56% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Muangthong United vs Port FC | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Thunder Dome Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Muangthong United 41% | Draw 25% | Port FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Muangthong United 1.47 / Port FC 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Muangthong United attack 1.218 / def 1.169 | Port FC attack 1.003 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.006 / away 1.124 • Poisson stance: Muangthong United (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Muangthong United xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Port FC xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Muangthong United vs Port FC kick off?
Muangthong United vs Port FC kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What was the final score in Muangthong United vs Port FC?
Muangthong United 2 - 1 Port FC.
Where is Muangthong United vs Port FC being played?
The match is being played at Thunder Dome Stadium.
What competition is Muangthong United vs Port FC part of?
Muangthong United vs Port FC is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Muangthong United vs Port FC?
Our statistical model gives Muangthong United a 41% chance of winning, Port FC a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Muangthong United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Muangthong United vs Port FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Muangthong United and Port FC will score (BTTS).
Will Muangthong United vs Port FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Port FC?
Record (1 meetings): Muangthong United 0W | Draws 0 | Port FC 1W.
What form are Muangthong United and Port FC in?
Muangthong United (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Port FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Muangthong United's attack at 1.22x the league average against Port FC's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Port FC's attack versus Muangthong United's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 19/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Muangthong United Win
41%
2.45
25%
3.96
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Muangthong United xG
Total xG
2.79
1.32
Port FC xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Muangthong United vs Port FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Muangthong United and Port FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Muangthong United and 1.32 for Port FC, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Muangthong United vs Port FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Muangthong United's recent record stands at 8W 5D 5L from 18 games, a 1.61 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Muangthong United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Port FC, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 5L across 18 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-W-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Port FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Muangthong United on 1.61 PPG, Port FC on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Muangthong United have managed 6W 2D 1L from 9 games — 2.22 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.61 PPG overall — Muangthong United are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Port FC's away record stands at 3W 3D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Muangthong United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Muangthong United are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Port FC are on 1.44 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Muangthong United have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Port FC in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Muangthong United
Blended
Port FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Muangthong United and Port FC in coming into this match?
Muangthong United have gone 8W 5D 5L in their last 18 games (1.61 PPG), while Port FC have gone 8W 5D 5L in their last 18 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Muangthong United at home or Port FC away?
Muangthong United's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Muangthong United at home: 2.22 PPG; Port FC away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Muangthong United or Port FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Muangthong United have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Port FC in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Muangthong United's record when hosting Port FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Muangthong United
3
Draws
5
Port FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Muangthong United and Port FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Muangthong United have won 2, Port FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Muangthong United and Port FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Muangthong United 0-0 Port FC.
Who has won more matches between Muangthong United and Port FC?
Port FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Muangthong United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Port FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Muangthong United at 78%, Port FC at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Muangthong United and 56% for Port FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Port FC in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Muangthong United home games / Port FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Muangthong United play Port FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Muangthong United's games and 56% of Port FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Muangthong United vs Port FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Muangthong United's matches and 56% of Port FC's.
Do Muangthong United and Port FC tend to score early?
Muangthong United have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Port FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Muangthong United edge out Port FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Muangthong United beat Port FC 2-1 at Thunder Dome Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Muangthong United 1.47 xG and Port FC 1.32 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Muangthong United attack 1.22 / defence 1.17 against Port FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.20, drawn from 19/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Muangthong United 41% | Draw 25% | Port FC 34%, with Muangthong United to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Muangthong United 50%, Port FC 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Muangthong United's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Port FC's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Muangthong United 1.61 PPG, Port FC 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Muangthong United win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.