Lamphun Warrior 2-2 Uthai Thani – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Uthai Thani at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani meet at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 November 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Lamphun Warrior (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Thai League 1 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lamphun Warrior have posted 3W 4D 3L at 700th Anniversary Stadium — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Lamphun Warrior are significantly better at 700th Anniversary Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Uthai Thani's overall Thai League 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Uthai Thani, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Uthai Thani's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Thai League 1 this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Lamphun Warrior register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Uthai Thani in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 1 for Uthai Thani and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Lamphun Warrior half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Uthai Thani half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 56% versus Uthai Thani 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 54% | Uthai Thani 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.49 xG and Uthai Thani 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.978 / defence 1.304 | Uthai Thani attack 1.003 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.212. Data: 41 Lamphun Warrior games / 41 Uthai Thani games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 33% | Draw 30% | Uthai Thani 37%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | Uthai Thani 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Uthai Thani are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Uthai Thani if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 70% | Uthai Thani 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: 700th Anniversary Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 33% | Draw 30% | Uthai Thani 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 65% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.49 / Uthai Thani 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.978 / def 1.304 | Uthai Thani attack 1.003 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Uthai Thani (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Uthai Thani xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani?
Lamphun Warrior 2 - 2 Uthai Thani.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani being played?
The match is being played at 700th Anniversary Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 33% chance of winning, Uthai Thani a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Uthai Thani the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani?
Record (4 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 1W | Draws 2 | Uthai Thani 1W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Uthai Thani (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lamphun Warrior's attack rating (0.98) and Uthai Thani's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Uthai Thani's attack (1.00x) against Lamphun Warrior's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Uthai Thani Win
33%
3.06
30%
3.28
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
3.08
1.58
Uthai Thani xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
7%
14.91
8%
12.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.3 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.9 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.58 for Uthai Thani, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 41 outings, Lamphun Warrior have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 10W 14D 17L record — D-L-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Uthai Thani's form line: 11W 14D 16L from 41 games, 1.15 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W. The sample for Uthai Thani is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for Lamphun Warrior against 1.15 for Uthai Thani. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lamphun Warrior have posted 1.32 PPG from 19 outings (6W 7D 6L).
On the road, Uthai Thani have gone 4W 4D 11L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Uthai Thani are on 1.24 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Uthai Thani in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Uthai Thani
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 10W 14D 17L in their last 41 games (1.07 PPG), while Uthai Thani have gone 11W 14D 16L in their last 41 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Uthai Thani away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.32 PPG; Uthai Thani away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lamphun Warrior have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Uthai Thani — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
4
Draws
1
Uthai Thani
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani?
From 6 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Uthai Thani have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Uthai Thani 0-0 Lamphun Warrior.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Uthai Thani are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 58%, Uthai Thani 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Lamphun Warrior) and 47% (Uthai Thani).
On the defensive side: Uthai Thani in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Uthai Thani away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Uthai Thani?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 58% of Uthai Thani's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Uthai Thani usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 47% of Uthai Thani's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Uthai Thani in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at 700th Anniversary Stadium, Regular Season - 12, as Lamphun Warrior and Uthai Thani drew 2-2 in the Thai League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.49 xG and Uthai Thani 1.58 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.98 / defence 1.30 against Uthai Thani attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 33% | Draw 30% | Uthai Thani 37%, with Uthai Thani to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 54%, Uthai Thani 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Uthai Thani's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.07 PPG, Uthai Thani 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Uthai Thani (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.