Lamphun Warrior 0-0 Prachuap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lamphun Warrior at 48%, yet in-form Prachuap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Thai League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Prachuap travel to Lamphun Warriors Stadium to take on Lamphun Warrior. The game is scheduled for Sunday 24 November 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamphun Warrior stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Thai League 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lamphun Warrior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lamphun Warrior's home record at Lamphun Warriors Stadium: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Thai League 1 appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Thai League 1 games this season, Prachuap have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Prachuap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Thai League 1 this season, Prachuap have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Prachuap's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Lamphun Warrior's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Lamphun Warrior, 2 for Prachuap and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 0–2 with Prachuap winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lamphun Warrior in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Prachuap in-play and half-time data (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamphun Warrior 60% versus Prachuap 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamphun Warrior 60% | Prachuap 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lamphun Warrior 1.70 xG and Prachuap 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.959 / defence 1.071 | Prachuap attack 0.923 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.144. Data: 42 Lamphun Warrior games / 43 Prachuap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 48% | Draw 30% | Prachuap 22%. Fair-value odds: Lamphun Warrior 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Prachuap 4.55. Lamphun Warrior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lamphun Warrior at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Prachuap (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lamphun Warrior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Lamphun Warrior 70% | Prachuap 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap | Competition: Thai League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Lamphun Warriors Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lamphun Warrior 48% | Draw 30% | Prachuap 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Lamphun Warrior 1.70 / Prachuap 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Lamphun Warrior attack 0.959 / def 1.071 | Prachuap attack 0.923 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.747 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Lamphun Warrior (48%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Lamphun Warrior xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Prachuap xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap kick off?
Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What was the final score in Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Lamphun Warrior 0 - 0 Prachuap.
Where is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap being played?
The match is being played at Lamphun Warriors Stadium.
What competition is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap part of?
Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Thai League 1 (Thailand).
Who is favourite to win Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our statistical model gives Lamphun Warrior a 48% chance of winning, Prachuap a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lamphun Warrior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap will score (BTTS).
Will Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
Record (4 meetings): Lamphun Warrior 1W | Draws 1 | Prachuap 2W.
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap in?
Lamphun Warrior (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Prachuap (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lamphun Warrior's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Prachuap's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, Prachuap's attack versus Lamphun Warrior's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamphun Warrior Win
48%
2.09
30%
3.37
22%
4.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Lamphun Warrior xG
Total xG
2.83
1.13
Prachuap xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.45
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
18%
5.49
Win to Nil
15%
6.47
4%
24.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.3 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Lamphun Warrior and 1.13 for Prachuap, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lamphun Warrior's recent record stands at 12W 12D 18L from 42 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Lamphun Warrior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Prachuap, meanwhile, have gone 13W 14D 15L across 42 games — 1.26 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Prachuap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lamphun Warrior on 1.14 PPG, Prachuap on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lamphun Warrior have managed 10W 5D 6L from 21 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Lamphun Warrior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Prachuap's away record stands at 1W 9D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Prachuap's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lamphun Warrior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lamphun Warrior are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Prachuap are on 1.26 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Thai League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lamphun Warrior
Blended
Prachuap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap in coming into this match?
Lamphun Warrior have gone 12W 12D 18L in their last 42 games (1.14 PPG), while Prachuap have gone 13W 14D 15L in their last 42 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lamphun Warrior at home or Prachuap away?
Lamphun Warrior's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lamphun Warrior at home: 1.67 PPG; Prachuap away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Thai League 1. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Lamphun Warrior's record when hosting Prachuap specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Lamphun Warrior
4
Draws
3
Prachuap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
From 8 meetings on record, Lamphun Warrior have won 1, Prachuap have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Lamphun Warrior 1-1 Prachuap.
Who has won more matches between Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap?
Prachuap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lamphun Warrior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Prachuap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lamphun Warrior 71%, Prachuap 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Lamphun Warrior) and 38% (Prachuap).
On the defensive side: Prachuap in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lamphun Warrior home games / Prachuap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lamphun Warrior play Prachuap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Lamphun Warrior's games and 57% of Prachuap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lamphun Warrior vs Prachuap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Lamphun Warrior's recent games and 38% of Prachuap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap tend to score early?
Lamphun Warrior have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Prachuap in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lamphun Warrior's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Lamphun Warriors Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Lamphun Warrior and Prachuap drew 0-0 in the Thai League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lamphun Warrior 1.70 xG and Prachuap 1.13 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lamphun Warrior fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Prachuap landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lamphun Warrior attack 0.96 / defence 1.07 against Prachuap attack 0.92 / defence 1.02, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lamphun Warrior 48% | Draw 30% | Prachuap 22%, with Lamphun Warrior to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lamphun Warrior 60%, Prachuap 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lamphun Warrior's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Prachuap's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lamphun Warrior 1.14 PPG, Prachuap 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lamphun Warrior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Prachuap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.